130 FXUS61 KBGM 151755 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1255 PM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Other than some flurries this morning over parts of central New York, it will be dry and seasonably cold through Monday, with high pressure building across the region. An approaching frontal complex will bring the likelihood of rain on Tuesday, which could start as a brief wintry mix in the morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 10 AM update...Persistant cloud cover this morning over central New York and the Finger Lakes. Expect clouds to only slowly erode so have increased cloud cover in coverage and time in the grids. Otherwise just some minor tweeks to the temperatires and weather at this update. Previosu discussion continues below. 215 am update... A weak surface trough and mid-level short-wave are in the process of crossing CNY/NEPA this morning, with some associated clouds and flurries. Model layered relative humidity guidance and sounding profiles would indicate the likelihood of clearing by/during the afternoon, as low-level moisture mixes out and sinking motion increases, owing to the approach of surface ridging. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 20s-lower 30s. Tonight and most of Monday look dry and mainly clear, as surface ridging extends from eastern Canada southward into NY/PA. We may see an increase in mid to higher-level clouds late in the day Monday, especially over the Finger Lakes and central southern tier zones of CNY. Given the expectation of good radiating conditions, readings tonight should drop quickly after sunset, with mostly teens anticipated by daybreak Monday. Highs Monday should range in the 30s area-wide. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 415 AM EST Update... A low pressure system will develop over the central souther plains monday morning and move towards the Midwest on Monday, then head towards the northeast on Tuesday. This will be the next system to impact our region and may bring a wintry mix to our area. The main concern with this system is will we see freezing rain and sleet Tuesday morning. WAA will be strong enough ahead of this system that 850MB temps will rise to around 2-3 deg C. This push of warm air will enough warming aloft to melt precip into the form of sleet if not rain. Sfc temps are expected to rise above freezing through at least 10AM Tuesday morning for locations I-81 and west, then 1PM for locations I-81 and east. Due to this combination, freezing rain is the likely form of precip. Model guidance over the previous runs have slowed the start time of precip entering the area. Frozen precip will likely move into central NY and northeast PA after 7AM Tuesday. Ice accumulations attm are looking to be light, with amounts ranging from a glaze to less than a tenth of an inch of ice. Sfc temps are forecast to rise above freezing after 1PM and all precip should then transition over to rain. The best chance for rain over the region will be from 18Z to 00Z Wed, but the chance for rain will linger through Tuesday night. Temps Tuesday will be non-diurnal, starting out fairly chilly in the low to mid 20s, and quickly rise after sunrise with temps reaching the uppr 30s to low 40s Tuesday afternoon. Temps will stay steady overnight on Tuesday as WAA continues, thus temps will remain in the uppr 30s to low 40s through Wed morning. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 4AM EST Update... No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. For more information please read the previous forecast discussion below. Previous forecast discussion... 2 pm update... Some lingering showers are possible behind the fropa Wednesday to Wednesday night. Amounts will be light. Cold enough air may finally move in Wednesday night to cause the rain to mix with snow. Upper level trough moves through Thursday or Thursday night with weak lake effect showers if any. Air mass still mild with highs in the 40s and lows around 30. High pressure for Friday and Saturday with building upper level heights. The GFS and Canadian is faster and more progressive bringing rain showers back in Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Persistant stratocu deck continues over central New and NE Pennsylvania this afternoon with MVFR cigs and even some MVFR visibility at BGM. With the light northwest flow expect only a slow improvement to VFR later this afternoon and overnight. Eventually, a surface high pressure will build in bringing clearing skies and VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Whith the high pressure, winds will be light. OUTLOOK... Monday night...VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in rain, perhaps starting as a wintry mix early Tuesday. Thursday and Friday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...DGM