763 FXUS66 KLOX 131114 AFDLOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 314 AM PST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Aside from some clouds and scattered showers over the mountains and the Antelope Valley today it will dry and mild weather through early next week as high pressure builds in. The next chance for rain will be the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN) Fairly quite conditions over the area. Perhaps a few snow showers over the mountains. The north slopes and then interior vlys have a decent amount of clouds but otherwise the coasts and vlys are partly cloudy to mostly clear with cool temps. The upper low that brought all of Thursday's weather is now just to the west of Point Conception and it is moving to the south. The atmosphere near the core of the low is pretty dry and stable and it is not expected bring much of any clouds to the area. By this afternoon the low will be a couple hundred miles further south and the cyclonic flow around the low will wrap moisture up from mexico and into the Antelope Vly and the north slopes of mtns. Skies will be mostly cloudy and a chance of showers will develop. The snow level will be very low...near 3500 feet...and the grapevine may see some flurries but probably not enough to really affect traffic. Speaking of winter weather...the snow really is not falling very much any more and the winter weather advisory will be cancelled at 300 am. It will be another cool day today with highs 4 to 8 degrees blo normal. By Saturday morning the upper low will be far enough to the south to push the upper level flow to the NE. This NE upper flow will combine with a weak offshore push at the sfc. This will result in some winds blo and through the passes and canyons but the gusts will almost all be below advisory criteria. It will be sunny and this along with offshore flow and rising hgts will allow max temps to jump 5 to 10 degrees and most temps across the coasts and vlys will be near normal. Sunday will be a fairly dull day. A very weak trof will move overhead. The EC actually generates some showers but think this is a little overdone. Instead look for a few more clouds and cooler max temps as the offshore turns onshore. .LONG TERM...(MON-THU) Weak ridging will keep the area dry Mon and Tue. Skies will be mostly clear and there will be a slow warming trend with max temps rising to a couple of degrees above normal. Things will start to change on Wednesday as the ridge breaks down and the upper level flow turns westerly as the result of a cold upper low pushing down from the north. The EC is the fasted mdl bring some light rain to SLO county by Wednesday afternoon. But realistically Wednesday should just see increasing clouds. The hgts will still be pretty high and max temps will be near or perhaps a degree above normal. Both the GFS and the EC agree that rain will overspread the entire area Wednesday night and persist through most of Thursday. Both Mdls also indicate unsettled weather lasting through Saturday. If these solutions are close to correct it looks like another couple inches of rain for the area. But no one ever got rich betting on the long range mdl solutions so will take a wait and see attitude before promising any storm details. && .AVIATION...13/1120Z At 1100Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion. Good confidence in all TAFs xcp for the southern portion for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties after 20z today. This is due to the potential of wrap around moisture which could bring a slight chance of showers to these areas and MVFR cigs. 20% for IFR cigs if afternoon and early evening showers develop. 50% chance that Desert TAFs will have variable cigs and a chc of showers after 17z through early this evening. KLAX...Good confidence in 12z TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of MVFR and 20% for IFR cigs/vis 10Z-16Z. 10-20% chance for a shower after 21z-03z. There is a 40 percent chc of a cig near 050 from 17Z- 03Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12z TAF. There is a 40 percent chc of no MVFR cigs through 16Z. There is a 20 percent chc of a shower after 20z-03z. There is a 40 percent chc of a cig near 050 from 17Z- 03Z. && .MARINE... 13/220 AM. Winds across the outer waters will approach SCA levels for the next couple of days, with a 40% chance for some SCA level gusts Fri-early Sat. The threat of thunderstorms will have passed across the southern portion of the inner waters near San Mateo Pt early this morning. It looks like there will be a 70% chance for SCA level winds across the outer waters S of Point Sal by Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. There is a 30% chance that SCA level wind gusts could affect the inner waters nearshore between Ventura to Malibu late tonight into Sat morning. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until noon PST today for zones 39>41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...NONE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SUN-THU) Another large storm is possible Wed and Thu. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Kaplan MARINE...Kaplan SYNOPSIS...Sukup/Sirard weather.gov/losangeles