049 FXUS64 KAMA 111051 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 451 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017 .DISCUSSION... The medium range models continue their trend of warming late this week through this weekend and forecast model soundings and thickness values support a mix of mainly cold rain...freezing rain...sleet and or perhaps snow starting Friday through Sunday and Sunday night. Today...a surface trough to the lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen today and allow for increasing southwest to west winds today by 18Z. High temperatures will manage to climb into the mid and upper 60s to the low and mid 70s or higher today with record or near record high temperatures at Amarillo...Dalhart and Borger. A cold front will push south and west across eastern Colorado and southern and eastern Kansas today...and then tracking west and south into the Panhandles later tonight and Thursday. The GFS forecasting a closed upper low over California today to dig south into near Baja by Friday night and Saturday and then lifts east and north into northwest Mexico by Saturday night...and then to near far West Texas and the southern Rockies Sunday. The GFS then lifts the closed upper low north and east into the Panhandles Sunday night and early Monday. The GFS develops a surface wave on the western periphery of the cold front over the southern Rockies and far West Texas Sunday. The surface wave tracks east across West Texas by late Sunday through early Monday before tracking the surface wave east into Oklahoma by 18Z Monday. Wrap around precip may linger across the far northern portions of the forecast area into early Monday. The ECMWF forecasting closed upper low over the Pacific Northwest to dig into California by Thursday night and then to near Baja California by Friday night before lifting the upper system east and north across northwest Mexico Saturday night and far West Texas Sunday. The EC then tracks the closed upper low north and east into the Panhandles Sunday night before exiting the forecast area Monday into the central Plains states. The EC pushes the cold front west and south across the Panhandles late tonight and Thursday and then also develops a surface wave on the western periphery of the frontal boundary late Saturday and Saturday night over far West Texas. The EC tracks the surface wave east to around the Concho Valley Sunday and then north to near the Red River Valley late Sunday and then into Oklahoma Sunday night and the central Plains states Monday. Upslope east and southeast surface flow Thursday to become east Thursday night and then northeast Friday. Low level moisture to advect into the forecast area with the upslope surface flow with precip commencing Friday. Until the cold air advection arrive with the approaching surface wave Sunday and Sunday night...precip likely to be more of a cold rain and or freezing rain event with the precip changing over to more frozen...sleet or snow...late in the weekend into early next week before ending. Moderating trend to begin by next Tuesday and Wednesday. Schneider && .FIRE WEATHER... A surface trough to the lee of the Rockies across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico will deepen today and allow for downsloping southwest to west 20 foot winds to increase to around 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 25 to 30 mph by late morning or midday today. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will fall to near 12 to 20 percent across all of the Panhandles. 850 mb thermal ridge expected to be over the southeastern/eastern half of the Panhandles between 12 PM and 6 PM today. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop by late morning or midday today and should then end by early this evening. A cold front across eastern Colorado into southern and eastern Kansas today will push west and south into the Panhandles late tonight into Thursday. The 20 foot winds will shift to the east and southeast after the cold front moves through and low level moisture will advect into the region. Schneider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 76 38 62 24 37 / 0 0 0 5 30 Beaver OK 73 27 50 18 29 / 0 0 0 5 30 Boise City OK 66 30 55 19 34 / 0 0 0 5 20 Borger TX 76 39 60 25 35 / 0 0 0 5 30 Boys Ranch TX 75 35 62 25 39 / 0 0 0 5 30 Canyon TX 74 37 63 26 39 / 0 0 0 5 40 Clarendon TX 78 42 61 26 37 / 0 0 0 5 40 Dalhart TX 71 32 59 21 38 / 0 0 0 5 30 Guymon OK 71 31 53 19 32 / 0 0 0 5 30 Hereford TX 75 36 64 28 43 / 0 0 0 5 40 Lipscomb TX 75 32 53 21 31 / 0 0 0 5 40 Pampa TX 77 38 59 23 33 / 0 0 0 5 30 Shamrock TX 78 38 57 26 34 / 0 0 0 5 40 Wellington TX 79 40 58 28 35 / 0 0 0 10 40 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 2/11