320 FXUS62 KMHX 100540 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1240 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast tonight will move east Tuesday. The high will linger offshore through midweek. A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday and push south through the area Friday night as high pressure builds in from the north Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1230 AM Tue...Increasing high clouds from W to E overnight shld limit much further temp drop with upper teens inland to 20 cst. Prev disc...No changes to previous thinking. High pressure along the eastern Seaboard tonight will make for another cold night across the forecast area with calm winds and clear skies. However, the airmass has modified somewhat so lows tonight are not forecast to be quite as cold as last night with readings in the upper teens to lower 20s. We are not expected to break low Record low temps which are listed below. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 245 pm Mon...As the high moves off the coast a light southeast wind flow will develop in the afternoon. Models show a weak coastal trof developing during the day, but any showers will remain off the coast so will continue the dry forecast. High temps will show quite a range, with mid 40s along the coastal plain to mid 50s south coast and near 60 for the southern Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 am Monday...High pressure will remain centered off the coast with S/SW winds continuing to bring a warmup across the region. The approaching frontal system will encounter weakening upper level dynamics and a dry airmass and will essentially wash out before reaching the area, however models do bring in a few showers as the coastal trough backs into the region bringing increasing low level moisture and convergence. Best chances for rain will be along the coast this period and will generally be light as the moisture remains below 700mb and the dendritic growth zone remains dry. Low temps expected in the 40s inland to low to mid 50s along the coast and expect any remaining snow/sleet cover to melt by Wed. Highs Wed will mainly be in the low to mid 60s, though some northern locations may only reach the upper 50s. Thursday through Friday...Dry with continued warming this period as sfc high pressure remains centered off the coast and upper ridging builds along the eastern seaboard. There is some concern that sea fog will develop across the sounds and move into adjacent coastal counties as water temps in the protected waters have dropped into the upper 30s with the current arctic outbreak and dewpoints expected to climb to the mid to upper 50s this period. Highs Thursday expected around 65-70 though may only reach the lower 60s across the northern OBX. Temps warms a few degrees Friday with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s inland and low to mid 60s across the OBX. Lows Thursday night expected in the low to mid 50s. Friday night through Sunday...Models coming into better agreement with a backdoor cold front pushing south across the region Friday night with a strong low level inversion developing keeping abundant low clouds across the region through the weekend. Generally moisture will be limited but could see a few showers along the front Fri night and sounding indicate moisture may be sufficiently deep for light rain or drizzle to continue through the weekend. Temps expected to be near to slightly above normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 40s inland to low to mid 50s coast. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 1230 AM Tue...Mainly VFR expected thru noon with mainly bkn high clouds. Warm/moist advection on backside of high pres will lead to increasing CU this aftn with cigs poss lowering to MVFR late. Cigs will cont near MVFR lvls thru the evening then may improve from W to E late as better low lvl moisture slides to cst. Some sprinkles poss late day that may increase a bit tonight but sct nature and light intensity shld not impact vsbys much. Long Term /Wed through Saturday/... As of 555 PM Monday...High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period with pred light S/SW flow across rtes. VFR expected to prevail most of period though some sub-VFR possible with scattered shower threat Wed into Wed night. Also cannot rule out patchy early morning fog producing sub-VFR conditions, especially Thu and Fri mornings, as dewpoints increase to the mid to upper 50s across the region. Dense sea fog will also be possible Thu through Fri affecting the sound counties with impacts expected to remain east of the terminals. A backdoor cold front is forecast to cross the area Friday night with the potential for sub VFR ceilings behind the front Friday night into Saturday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tue/... As of 1230 AM Tue...No changes to previous thinking. Light winds and subsiding seas will occur in the short term. High pressure along the east coast tonight moves east Tuesday. Light north to northeast winds tonight will become southerly Tuesday and increase to 10 to 15 KT as a result. 3 to 5 ft seas this evening will subside to 2 to 4 ft overnight and Tuesday except for the waters south of Cape Lookout Tuesday where seas 1-3 feet are forecast. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 555 PM Monday...Gradients tighten further Tuesday night as a frontal system passes to north with minimal SCA conditions possible across portions of the central/southern coastal waters as S/SW winds increase to 10-20 kt and possibly as strong as 25 kt across the offshore waters. NWPS builds seas to 3-6 ft, highest across the central and southern waters, though Wavewatch limits seas to 5 ft across the nearshore waters. Gradients relax Wed with SW winds around 5-15 kt expected to persist through Friday with the high remaining off the southeast coast through the period. Seas progged to subside to 2-4 ft Wed afternoon into Thu but models builds seas to 3-5 ft for Thu and Fri. Marginal SCA conditions could develop behind a backdoor cold front Friday night into Saturday as winds shift to north and increase. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW MIN TEMPS FOR 01/10 (TUESDAY) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 10/1982 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 11/1982 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 6/1982 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 9/1970 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS) Kinston 9/1970 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 10/1982 (KNCA AWOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME/HSA NEAR TERM...RF/JME/HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RF/SK MARINE...RF/JME/SK/HSA CLIMATE...MHX