501 FXUS63 KLBF 011756 AAA AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 1156 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 237 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 Forecast challenge is temperatures as models show differences in developing pattern and energy moving through the southwest flow aloft. For today warm temps again. An arctic front will move south through the northern Plains to northern Nebraska this afternoon that marks the transition to much colder air. The front stalls out while an upper level disturbance, now lifting north through northwest Kansas will bring an increase in clouds this morning and isolated flurries for parts of the southwest through west central. The disturbance continues northeast into the afternoon with clouds to spread northeast with the chance for flurries transitioning to sprinkles by noontime as surface temps rise above freezing. Today temps will range from around 31 far northwest sandhills to the lower 40s southeast. Tonight the forecast challenge increases as the arctic front stalls out and southwest flow aloft prevails. A second disturbance moves through the southern stream to the southern plains. The broad area of weak low pressure on the high plains results in the front becomes nearly stationary over the northwest overnight. The boundary layer moistens up through 5 Kft and weak lift will result in stratus forming with a slight chance for light precipitation. For now carried forward the mention of patchy freezing drizzle over the southeast half where the shallow depth of moisture, drier and warmer air aloft could produce either patchy freezing or frozen precipitation. More certain is as temperatures fall tonight patchy freezing fog develops overnight with black ice a concern as temperatures fall into the teens to mid 20s by daybreak. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 237 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 The beginning of next week brings the next chance of wintry precipitation to north central Nebraska as a low pressure system develops off the Rocky Mountains and begins to track northward across the Dakotas. With a northerly track, snowfall will mostly remain north of the region. However, central Nebraska will not be completely clear of wintry precipitation. With plenty of boundary layer moisture across the region on Monday morning and temperatures near or slightly below freezing, freezing drizzle will be the main concern for much of the forecast area. In addition to freezing drizzle, fog could also be added to the mix which could create additional travel impacts as any freezing drizzle accumulations on area roadways will be more difficult to see. Fog and stratus much of the day will result in cooler temperatures across the region. Highs range from the upper teens across the Pine Ridge to the mid 30s across south central Nebraska. Behind the departing low pressure system, our next major weather concern arrives. A developing arctic high pressure system across the northern Plains will begin to drive a much colder airmass into Nebraska starting early Tuesday. Temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees from Monday. While these cold temperatures will stick around for a few days, the coldest temperatures will be experienced Tuesday night when low temperatures drop into the single digits south of a line from Alliance to O'Neill. North of this line temperatures will drop into the negative single digits with the Pine Ridge region dropping to 10 to 15 degrees below zero. These cold temperatures will combine with moderate winds to create wind chills between -15 and -25 degrees Tuesday night across the northern forecast area. Will continue to monitor the forecast to determine if wind chill headlines will be needed. For the most part, the arctic high pressure settling across the central Plains will keep conditions dry through the end of the week. A weak disturbance moving off the Rockies Wednesday night could spark some light snow south of I-80, however, confidence in this wave is very low at this time and therefore, nothing more than a mention is warranted at this time. Temperatures slowly moderate back into the upper 20s and low 30s by the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 A quick short wave moved through this morning with little impact on sensible weather. This push of moisture and a mid level ceiling will continue to push off to the northeast through the early afternoon hours with slow clearing behind. A few sprinkles and/or flurries are still within the realm of possibility before it clears out but it will be of little impact. Beyond 06z ceilings will lower to marginal flight rules with the chance for light snow in the far northwest sandhills of Sheridan and western Cherry counties. Overnight stratus will develop with ceilings lowering with patchy areas of freezing drizzle and fog generally southeast of a line from Ainsworth to Imperial. The surface remains saturated through the morning. A cold front will move from northwest to southeast after the TAF period with brisk northwest winds but little in the way of snow or any other impact on aviation expected aside from the wind. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Keck LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Allen