331 FXUS62 KTBW 262007 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 307 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)... Mid/upper level ridging over the region will weaken some and become suppressed as shortwaves move across the Ohio Valley and northeast U.S. tonight and Tuesday. Meanwhile at the surface the gradient will weaken as a cold front moves into the southeast states causing the easterly flow to become lighter. For the rest of this afternoon and evening we will continue to see scattered to broken cumulus/stratocumulus with a few light showers/sprinkles possible. Overnight the lighter flow should allow us to see more low clouds and fog develop lingering into Tuesday morning. Skies should become partly to mostly sunny by afternoon and with lighter winds a decent west coast sea breeze should develop and move inland Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will remain shallow, but cannot rule out a few more light showers/sprinkles over inland areas late in the afternoon and early evening. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 60s with daytime highs on Tuesday ranging from the mid to upper 70s along the coast thanks to the sea breeze to the mid 80s central and southern inland areas. These highs should remain a couple of degrees shy of the records for the date. .MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Monday)... A few showers along sea breeze front could persist into southwest Florida into Tuesday evening, but feel the chance is too low to include in forecast. Very weak pressure gradient for Wednesday with weak sea breeze fronts. No models develop isolated showers. Strong cold front moves into Nature Coast late Thursday then passes through the rest of the area overnight. Best dynamics remain to the north so only low rain chances. Friday will see windy and below normal temperatures. This will be about 20 degrees colder than the temperatures the last few days. Surface high pressure quickly moves into the Atlantic Saturday with temperatures returning to around normal. Southeast flow develops Sunday with increasing humidity and above normal temperatures. On Monday, a cold front approaching the area will become stationary from the Georgia border to the southwest Gulf of Mexico. A shortwave in the southwest flow aloft will bring a small chance of showers on Monday, especially west and north of Tampa Bay. && .AVIATION... Some VFR ceilings will be possible into this evening then late tonight into Tuesday morning another round of MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible. Still looks like best chances will remain from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward, but cannot be ruled out in any area. The rest of Tuesday looks similar to today, other than the bay/sea breezes developing in the afternoon, with some areas of MVFR ceilings possible with daytime heating during the mid to late morning hours then VFR conditions should prevail for the afternoon. && .MARINE... East to northeast winds will continue with sea breeze being delayed and pinned along the coast and if it can develop will likely at the coast from the Tampa Bay area northward this afternoon and again on Monday. A nocturnal increase in the winds is expected tonight and speeds could reach exercise caution criteria, but mainly over the southern offshore waters. On Tuesday and Wednesday the east to northeast flow will diminish some allowing the sea breeze to develop better each afternoon. Then late in the week the next cold front approaches with a more southwest to west flow out ahead of it Thursday becoming northerly and increasing to near advisory criteria Thursday night into Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidities will remain above 35 percent for the next several days and winds and ERC values are below critical levels. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures could reach record highs this afternoon, but are expected to remain a couple of degrees below the records on Tuesday. Below are the records for a few sites across the area. Record Highs Site Mon(12/26) Tue(12/27) BKV 85 in 2015 85 in 2015 TPA 86 in 2015 85 in 2015 SPG 81 in 1941 82 in 1949 LAL 86 in 2015 85 in 2015 GIF 86 in 2015 85 in 1942 SRQ 85 in 2015 86 in 1988 PGD 87 in 2015 86 in 2015 FMY 87 in 2015 87 in 2015 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 67 82 65 79 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 66 84 65 83 / 10 10 10 10 GIF 64 83 63 82 / 10 10 10 0 SRQ 65 83 63 78 / 0 10 0 0 BKV 63 83 57 80 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 67 79 66 77 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...72/Noah