372 
FXUS64 KCRP 210959
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
359 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Clouds have diminished over most of the region except for some
scattered-broken clouds over the Victoria area early this morning. 
But lower clouds are advancing northward along the Lower Texas
coast. The isentropic upglide will continue to increase in the
295-300K layer by this afternoon and expect clouds will expand
over the coastal plains through the afternoon. Temperatures will
continue warming trend and went slightly above guidance for highs.
Isentropic lift will increase from the south tonight with patchy
light rain possible overnight over the southern portions of the
forecast area. Another cold front will push into the region
overnight and be near the coast by 12Z Thursday. The front will
move offshore Thursday morning. Isentropic lift will continue to
increase in the 295-300K layer to provide a chance of light rain
over most of the area except for the northern Brush Country. The
highs will be slightly cooler for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...

Extended forecast begins in the wake of a weak cold front at the
surface with high pressure aloft centered over the northwest Gulf.
Lingering showers are possible along the coast through Friday behind
the front, with little rainfall accumulation. 

Warm advection will then build our temperatures into the holiday
weekend as models develop a weak coastal low offshore. Model
discrepancies begin to appear here, lowering confidence in rain
chances over the weekend. Best chances for rain appear to be north
and northeast of the Coastal Bend, so have left the forecast dry for
now but may need to reintroduce pops near KVCT in future packages if
moisture and lift end up further south and west than currently
expected.

Model solutions continue to disagree early next week as the next
cold front approaches. GFS continues to wash out the front over
central Texas while the ECMWF brings the front all the way to the
coast Monday afternoon. Either way rain chances seem appropriate
over the eastern Coastal Bend from Sunday night through Tuesday.
Have retained slight chances for diurnal showers on Wednesday based
on increased moisture, with the same low confidence given the rest
of the rain chances for next week.

Temperatures should warm markedly over the weekend, with Christmas
Eve highs in the 70s and Christmas Day highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    69  60  65  54  69  /  10  20  40  10  10 
Victoria          69  54  64  49  65  /  10  10  30  10  20 
Laredo            72  56  63  52  64  /   0  20  40  10  10 
Alice             70  58  64  52  66  /  10  20  40  10  10 
Rockport          66  57  64  54  68  /  10  20  40  20  20 
Cotulla           71  52  61  50  63  /   0  10  20  10  10 
Kingsville        69  59  65  53  69  /  10  20  40  10  10 
Navy Corpus       66  61  65  55  68  /  10  20  40  20  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM