328 
FXUS64 KLZK 210548
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1148 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016

.AVIATION...
High pressure will move east of Arkansas today. However...mainly
clear skies are expected through the period. VFR conditions will
continue through the period with the exception of some morning fog
at ADF and IFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 527 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016
)

UPDATE...

Updated for the 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Clear skies, light wind, and VFR conditions will prevail through
the 00z TAF period. Winds will become increasingly southerly in
direction Monday morning onward.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 222 PM CST Sun Nov 20 2016 )

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

After the coldest morning so far this season for most areas...temps
have remained below normal so far this afternoon. SFC high pressure
was centered over the state overnight...but has since shifted
east...resulting in a return to the SRLY flow. This trend will
continue through much of the short term period...with warming temps
expected. 

For tonight...do not expect temps to be as cold as seen this Sun
morning...with temps a few deg warmer for Mon morning lows. Highs on
Mon will be near or just above normal...with mid 50s to upper 60s
expected. Dry conditions will continue. 

By Mon night...cloud cover will begin increasing as moisture levels
starting rising ahead of an approaching storm system. An upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east towards the region by the
daytime hrs on Tue...with SFC low pressure developing to the NW of
AR. This SFC low will begin lifting north of the state by the end of
the short term period...with a cold front moving east across OK
towards AR. Have increasing POPs for Tue afternoon...with best POPs
across WRN sections of the state. Better chances for precip across a
larger portion of the state will come Tue night into early Wed as
the cold front progresses east across AR.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

Rain and thunderstorms will be very likely across the CWA beginning
Tuesday afternoon through Wed morning. A potent upper level
shortwave and strengthening cyclogenesis will bring an assortment of
weather changes to the area. Warmer and breezy conditions expected
Tuesday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in
advance of the cold front. The storms will become more organized as
they accompany the frontal passage Tuesday night. Gradual clearing,
breezy and somewhat cooler conditions expected Wednesday with temps
falling back into the 30s most areas Wed night. All of the shower
activity is expected to move out of the CWA by noon Wed. Some storms
may be strong or possibly severe, especially across the southeastern
half of the state, with strong winds being the primary threat. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, CAPE will be limited, but
there will be decent sheer. In addition the more organized activity
will occur during the overnight hours when the atmosphere is a bit
more stable.

Looks like another weaker system may affect the area next weekend,
but models are in complete disagreement with timing and strength of
this system or whether there will be any impact at all. For now,will
carry slight chance pops for Sat through Sun across the CWA, but
confidence is low.  

What the models do agree on is a major storm system to affect the
central portions of the US at the end of the month, with the
potential to bring significant rain and much cooler temperatures.
Time will tell.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...51