289 FXUS64 KLIX 181818 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1218 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2016 .AVIATION... Mostly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. The exception will be as a convective band of isolated to scattered SHRA and a few TSRA, associated with a strong cold front, move through southeast LA and south MS from northwest to southeast between 03z and 11z Saturday. Isolated SHRA could also develop late this afternoon and early this evening in advance of the main band. Some lower MVFR category conditions due to CIGS and/or VSBY may impact the terminals, so have indicated VCSH or PROB30 -SHRA. Stronger and gusty northwest to north winds will follow cold frontal passage late tonight into Saturday. 22/TD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 651 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/ ..SOUNDING DISCUSSION... The sounding this morning is stable with a strong elevated inversion in the 870 to 750 mb layer and a very dry airmass above. It will be tough to get much precip out of the cold front late tonight. Right now PW is 0.7 inches. There is also a 15 F radiation inversion at the sfc resulting in some patchy fog. Winds are southerly at about 20 kts from just above the sfc to 500 mb then become more southwest. Krautmann PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/ SHORT TERM... Patchy fog has developed over some portions of the area this morning. This fog should mix out again this morning fairly quick by 8 or 9 AM. The big weather maker for today will be a large trough that is expected to push a cold front through the area tonight. We will still be warm today with little to no rainfall expected through most of the day. The front gets here tonight and with limited moisture we do not expect much in the way of rainfall. Coverage will be greatest in western portions of the CWA, but on a decreasing trend as the front progresses due to minimal deep layer moisture. Model soundings show precip water struggling to even reaching 1 inch. So only sight chance of rain tonight, but the bigger impact will come this weekend with much cooler temperatures. 13/MH LONG TERM... Behind the front on Saturday expect much cooler temperatures and strong gusty winds. Winds up to 20 to 30 mph can be expected on Saturday. Day time highs will struggle to go much above 60 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday and Monday mornings will be quite chilly with lows in the lower to mid 30s along and north of I-12 in LA and I-10 in MS. Widespread frost is expected in those areas. A few locations in coastal/sw Mississippi could touch the freezing mark, most likely on Monday morning when the post frontal surface ridge in oriented just northeast of the area. Temperatures moderate by early next week as the bulk of that cold air moves east and high pressure moves across the Gulf Coast. The next system looks to move into the picture by mid week. Both the GFS and Euro show a front moving towards the area on Wednesday. For now this looks like it could produce a little bit more of a rain threat, and we need it to combat the drought conditions over much of the southeast United States. 13/MH AVIATION... Radiational dense fog in patches mainly along the Pearl River Valley in at fog prone KHUM this morning should burn off by 14Z. VFR through the daylight hours then perhaps a marine layer of MVFR cloud bases towards 06Z ahead of strong cold front, which should move the terminals generally between 08Z and 12Z from west to east. 24/RR MARINE... Light onshore flow this morning is expected to become a little more moderate in response to approaching cold front this evening. Frontal passage through the coastal waters expected to be prior to sunrise west of the MS River and early Sat morning east, with strong northerly winds and frequent higher gusts to develop under strong cold air advection over relatively warm waters for much of the day Saturday. Small craft advisories will likely be posted later today or this evening prior to front's arrival. High pressure moderates rather quickly through Tuesday with another system moving through the Plains States to bring another frontal passage to the north gulf Wed night. 24/RR DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Blue Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Drought Monitoring Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 79 47 61 34 / 10 40 0 0 BTR 79 50 62 35 / 10 40 0 0 ASD 78 52 63 35 / 10 30 0 0 MSY 78 55 62 44 / 10 30 0 0 GPT 76 56 65 36 / 10 30 10 0 PQL 79 54 65 34 / 10 30 10 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for GMZ530. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$