051 
FXUS63 KMPX 141759
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

The main concerns in the near term...cloud trends along with
temperatures. 

Large cool area of high pressure system is retreating further east
this morning allowing pressure gradient to increase over MN and the
Dakotas. This all ahead of a developing cold front. Southerly flow
is on the increase and will continue through the period. Wind gusts
to 30 kts possible to the southwest this afternoon. Various short
range models continue to show increasing low level moisture lifting
to south central MN by 18z today...then lifting northeast and
affecting far east central MN into western WI for much of the
afternoon.  This should hold temepratures down somewhat...to near 60
where clouds are around the longest. Farther west...temperatures
will be influenced by some downslope near the buffalo ridge region.
There will be some high clouds moving through the fast westerly
upper flow...and may dim the sun from time to time.  Should be able
to warm through the lower 70s there. 

Stratus is expected to expand west into tonight and cover much of
the around through about 06z Sat. Lower clouds may produce some
mist/drizzle as well...with the best shot of that occurring over the
east overnight. With clouds and wind around...overnight lows
shouldn't drop off too much...remaining close to 55 to 60 across
the cwa.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Extensive stratus will continue ahead of a cold front pushing
across the region Saturday. Areas of drizzle are likely through
at least the morning hours across the east, but this will likely
diminish by afternoon with deeper mixing and a shallower cloud
layer. Despite the lack of sun, a mild and moist airmass will push
temps into the upper 60s or lower 70s. The front will be heading
into Wisconsin by early evening, but won't produce much in the
way of showers and thunderstorms with a capped atmosphere and weak
convergence/forcing on the boundary. Reduced PoPs more, now just
20-30 percent across far eastern MN and WI.

Weak high pressure will pass directly overhead Saturday night.
There isn't much cool air behind the front, but clear skies and
light winds should allow for good radiational cooling. The
eastward propagating surface ridge axis will be over the Great
Lakes by Sunday afternoon, and WAA is expected to resume over our
CWA. Another mild day is anticipated, but mid and high level
clouds may hamper some warming potential.

Am anticipating a rather warm airmass in place with lows
potentially in the lower 60s Sunday night south of the warm front.
That would near the record warm low temps, assuming it doesn't
cool below that Monday evening following the cold front. Showers
and thunderstorms may break out in advance of the warm front
across northern/central MN and into WI Sunday night as the LLJ
increases. Steep mid level lapse rates and strong shear in the mid
levels could bring some hail risk with the stronger storms.

Models have backed off on the degree of cyclogenesis with the
system emerging over the Plains Monday. Now they depict a large,
nebulous area of general low pressure without a clear defined
cold front. This doesn't bode well for precip chances.

Large high pressure encompassing much of the Rockies, central and
southern Canada, and the Plains will build in mid week. Dry and
cooler weather can be expected, but nothing too unusual for this
time of year. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

A low stratus deck is quickly approaching from the south this
afternoon and we think KMSP/KRNH/KEAU will be impacted by the
stratus within the next few hours. Ceilings should start with MVFR
conditions, but drop to IFR sometime late this evening, with
IFR/LIFR tonight and also the potential for mist/drizzle late.
KRWF and KSTC will not be impacted by the initial surge of clouds,
but should see the low ceilings arrive this evening/tonight as the
cloud shield expands westward once the sun gets a little lower in
the sky. Winds will gust between 20-30kts this afternoon and
remain elevated through the night.

KMSP...

The low clouds continue to move north and are just now on the
verge of moving into the far southern Twin Cities metro, so the
low clouds will be in place well before the evening push...likely
before 3 PM. Conditions are expected to deteriorate tonight with
low ceilings and vis restriction due to drizzle and mist.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat night...MVFR with -SHRA possible. Wind SW at 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind ESE around 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts becoming SE.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CLF