414 
FXUS64 KMEG 111111
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
611 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 AM CDT Tue Oct 11 2016/ 

Skies are partly cloudy over much of the forecast area as high
clouds sweep across the region. Temperatures early this morning
range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. High pressure covers much of
the eastern U.S. this morning. This will keep dry weather and very
warm temperatures over the forecast area today with highs mainly
in the mid 80s. Dry weather will continue for tonight as the high
starts to shift east into the Atlantic coast. Temperatures will be
fairly seasonable tonight with lows Wednesday morning in the 50s.

On Wednesday, a cold front will be located from the upper
Mississippi valley to the southern plains. The front will still be
too far west to produce any thunderstorms across the forecast
area. It will be another very warm day with highs mainly in the
mid 80s. By Wednesday night, the cold front will have moved into
Arkansas so some thunderstorms are expected to move into the
forecast area mainly over north and western sections. Temperatures
will remain on the mild side with lows in the mid 50s to around 60
degrees.

The cold front will move out of the region Thursday with only a
small chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Cooler and drier air
will move into the region bringing temperatures back down to near
normal levels with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 80s.
High pressure will briefly build into the region Thursday night
bringing dry weather.

On Friday...a warm front will start to lift north bringing a
chance of thunderstorms over far western sections late Thursday
night and over most of the forecast area on Friday. As the warm
front moves through the region Friday night some additional
thunderstorms are possible. The warm front should be north of the
forecast area by Saturday bringing an end to the thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be much warmer on Saturday with highs back in
the 80s.

Another cold front will approach the region on Sunday bringing a
small chance of thunderstorms mainly over northern sections of the
forecast area. The front will start to lift back north as a warm
front Sunday night and Monday with more dry weather and above
normal temperatures expected.

ARS

FIRE WEATHER... Moisture will increase some over eastern Arkansas
later today. East of the Mississippi River, drier air will remain
in place today. Twenty foot winds should remain below Red Flag
criteria where relative humidity levels are below 25 percent.
Wednesday should see similar conditions to today.

For most of the Midsouth, higher relative humidity levels are
expected behind a cold front Thursday afternoon. However, areas of
north Mississippi south of a Clarksdale to Oxford to Tupelo line
may see humidity levels drop to near 30 percent on Thursday,
followed by a late afternoon frontal wind shift.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFs

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
from the East to southeast 5-8kt during the day...less than 5kt
overnight. 

&&

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

$$