682 FXUS63 KDLH 041947 AAA AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 247 PM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016 Updated the forecast to add isolated showers. Radar showing diurnal showers popping up. Kept them in til aobut 7 pm. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016 A strengthening baroclinic zone over northwest Minnesota will be the focus showers and thunderstorms as it gradually slides east over the western Lake Superior region through Monday. Have trimmed back pops for today as high resolution models suggest the forecast area remains in the warm section ahead of the quasi- stationary front through 00Z. Models are in good agreement that a SW 50kt low level jet develops out ahead of the boundary overnight, which will aid to slow its eastward progression. Have increased pops for Labor Day to account for the slower timing. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of an inch or more will be possible as PWATs approach the 2 inch mark. At this time, the first round of heavy rain looks to impact north central Minnesota overnight; mainly after midnight. The rain and storms associated with the stalled front will slowly migrate into Northeast Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin late sunday night into Monday morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016 A very active weather pattern will result in numerous chances for showers and storms through the work week into next weekend. While Tuesday will be mild, the rest of the long term period will generally be on the cool side. Best chance for widespread rainfall will be Monday night into early Tuesday when strong to severe storms are possible, especially across east-central Minnesota, with the next highest chance Wednesday night mainly over northwest Wisconsin. For the rest of the long term period a chance of storms exists as numerous mid-level shortwave troughs impulses move from west to east across a deep longwave trough across the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Doesn't look to be a washout the entire period, but expect a chance for showers and storms each day. Severe potential diminishes after Wednesday due to more of a zonal to northwesterly flow aloft, limiting the potential for instability. This active pattern looks to wind down late in the weekend as a broad subtle ridge builds in from the west. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 2016 VFR at all sites this afternoon and evening except at BRD where there will be some MVFR ceilings through late afternoon. For tonight...showers and thunderstorms will affect INL/BRD around 06z and HIB/DLH sites around 08z... and HYR around 10z. MVFR conditions with IFR/LIFR in thunderstorms will be possible across all sites through midday Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 62 77 64 74 / 70 50 70 30 INL 63 74 59 71 / 90 50 60 30 BRD 64 78 64 73 / 80 40 60 30 HYR 64 81 68 79 / 50 50 70 60 ASX 64 83 67 79 / 50 60 70 50 && .DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...CLC SHORT TERM...Graning LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...Stewart