141 
FXUS64 KBMX 110028
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
728 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Broad surface low along the Gulf coast continues to spin tropical
moisture up into central Alabama. The trend over the last couple
days has been for showers to develop around 10 am and reach peak
coverage around 4 pm. Today has shown a marked decrease in
thunderstorm formation in Alabama (actually, as of 3 pm, I don't
think we've had one yet). If recent form holds, the showers should
decrease this evening, with a chance of sprinkles or drizzle
developing late.

Models continue their previous trend of drifting the low to the
west and northwest through the next few days, before getting
absorbed into a frontal system. The moisture influence of the
system is large enough that we will continue to have enhanced rain
chances for several more days.

Once we get into the weekend, and especially into next week,
conditions are likely to become more typical for late summer.
Nothing obviously major heading our way, synoptically.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Large cyclonic spin covers much of central Alabama thanks to broad
low pressure. Several showers remain across the region and kept
the mention of vcsh in until 02z with diminishing trend expected
after sunset, although a few showers could be around almost any
time. Along with this cyclonic flow, ample tropical moisture and
isentropic lift will be present overnight. Most locations will
experience MVFR ceilings between now and 06-08z then IFR ceilings
and possibly some drizzle. This forecast is heavily persistence
oriented as expect the same repeat conditions on Thursday. With
the clouds around, highs have been held a bit lower and
instability is not too high. Therefore, did not mention any
thunder at this time.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A tropical air mass will be present through the end of the week.
This will result in high rain chances each day. Critical fire
weather conditions will not occur this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  88  74  89  73 /  40  50  20  50  30 
Anniston    74  87  74  89  73 /  40  50  20  40  20 
Birmingham  76  87  75  88  75 /  40  60  30  50  30 
Tuscaloosa  76  88  76  88  74 /  40  70  40  60  40 
Calera      75  87  74  88  74 /  40  60  30  50  30 
Auburn      74  88  73  89  73 /  40  60  20  40  20 
Montgomery  76  90  75  91  74 /  40  60  30  50  30 
Troy        74  88  74  89  73 /  40  70  30  50  20 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None. 

&&

$$