140 FXUS65 KBYZ 290226 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...Updated National Weather Service BILLINGS MT 826 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016 .UPDATE... A pretty quiet night across SE MT as the threat of isolated thunderstorms has all but diminished. A very pleasant night should be on tap for the rest of the night. As a result, went ahead and brought PoPs down for the overnight period. A few small fires are still lingering across the CWA from previous lightning strikes. A cool and calm night should help in this regard. Singer && .SHORT TERM...valid for Fri and Sat... 1019mb surface high over the Dakotas will continue to slide south and east tonight with low level northeast flow slowly turning southeast. Upslope and low level convergence over western zones will slowly diminish as the evening wears on allowing convection to dissipate around sunset. The threat for any strong storms with small hail will only exist through about 7pm based on latest hi- res model solutions. Weak northwest flow will persist on Friday, though heights aloft will slowly rise. Weak ripple in this flow combined with stagnant low level moisture will keep a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in place during the afternoon and evening hours, but overall precipitation chances will be on the decline. Highs Friday afternoon will be seasonal in the mid to upper 80s. Rising heights Saturday along with increasing downslope westerly winds will bring hot and mainly dry conditions to the area. Expect highs well into the 90s across the area. Chambers .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... The latest models have continued the general solution they have been presenting. The trough Sunday continues to move across northern Montana that while there will be a front moving through the area, will not produce much of the issue with winds. Also, models, especially the SREF are showing the relative humidity values during the afternoon will only be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Some of the bias corrected may be lowering the humidity values too much given that we are slightly more moist than we have been. Also, as there will be some easterly low level flow continuing we will have a better chance to to keep the moisture flowing in. Monday will be cooler behind that cold front, but Tuesday as another trough moves in, temperatures will warm right back up. The cold front associated with the Tuesday system will be a bit stronger, especially with the winds. With the easterly flow as there will be a surface low over eastern Montana, moisture will still not be overly low. Through the remainder of the extended flow will be more zonal with temperatures in the 80s. Reimer && .AVIATION... While an isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible across the area this evening, activity has for the most part diminished. VFR will prevail through the period with generally light winds expected. STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 060/089 063/095 066/095 061/090 062/094 059/085 057/086 32/T 20/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U LVM 052/089 053/094 055/093 051/091 054/091 050/084 048/086 32/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 11/B 11/B 11/U HDN 056/090 059/096 064/096 060/092 060/097 056/087 054/087 32/T 20/U 11/B 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U MLS 059/087 062/095 066/096 063/092 063/096 061/087 058/086 22/T 10/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U 4BQ 058/088 061/095 066/097 063/093 063/097 061/087 057/088 32/T 11/U 12/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U BHK 055/083 057/091 062/094 060/088 059/091 058/084 055/084 22/T 11/U 12/T 22/T 12/T 22/T 11/U SHR 053/088 055/095 060/095 058/091 057/095 055/086 053/087 32/T 21/U 13/T 21/U 12/T 21/B 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings