737 
FXUS63 KILX 210828
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
328 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

The cool front that brought the scattered strong to severe storms to
parts of central through east central Illinois Monday evening has
shifted to just north of the I-70 corridor as of 2 am. The front
should settle a bit further south before stalling out later today
with the better chance for showers and storms over southwest through
southern Illinois, closer to the boundary, deeper moisture and
instability. Further north, RAP forecast soundings showing quite a
bit of dry air to the north of the frontal boundary which the north
half of the forecast area will enjoy today with a good amount of
sunshine. We should be able to mix down from around 780 mb over most
of the area which should translate to afternoon highs in to the mid
80s over most of the area, with upper 80s forecast for southeast
Illinois, which will be closer to the stalled frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Tonight, the stalled front will enhance some chances for
showers and thunderstorms over Central Illinois.  But the front
lifts back to the north from the south and west as a warm front on
Wednesday, continuing the showers and thunderstorms through the
morning and midday. At this point, it looks like there will be a
break in the precipitation, allowing for a reenergizing of the
atmosphere before the afternoon/night round. Later in the afternoon,
another wave will move out of the NW. The warm frontal feature at
the surface will provide a focus for severe thunderstorm
development.  The surface low track will carry the best threat for
potential severe weather, but overall the shear is enough to warrant
a concern for supercells.  SPC has put a moderate risk in NE
IL...and an enhanced risk for ILX along and NE of the I-74 corridor. 

The forecast dries out somewhat through the end of the week, but the
ECMWF is hinting at another wave and cold front for Saturday
night/Sunday. Upper level wave is well to the north and the surface
depiction is weak so far in the models. Far enough out in the
forecast that the pops will remain low for now. Heat returns for the
weekend again as WAA stays in place with southerly and westerly flow
out of the ridging in the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected this forecast period. One potential
problem just before sunrise Tuesday will be the threat for some
patchy ground fog in areas that received some rainfall Monday
evening. Right now, that is a low probability occurrence so will
leave out of TAFs. Otherwise, the cold front has made its way to
Champaign west southwest to SPI and will shift south of the TAF
sites by 06z. Winds, which have been highly variable in and near
the thunderstorms will become light northwesterly behind the cold
front overnight, and then west to northwest winds of 10 to 15 kts
can be expected on Tuesday with a few-sct cumulus possible during
the afternoon.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith