092 
FXUS63 KFGF 151446
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
946 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Made some minor adjustments to pops across NW MN based on current
radar trends and adjusted sky conditions across the west due to
accelerated clearing. No other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

1130 UTC...satellite and obs indicate upper low and sfc low just
northeast of park rapids MN. Area of rain that was over far nrn
MN is now wrapping back southwest and toward grand forks. This
area of rain on the northwest side of the upper low will continue
to drop south but gradually also move east. Have areas of drizzle
and low clouds too over much of the RRV and nw MN. Tweaked pops a
bit but otherwise going fcst fine. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Heaviest rain with this system fell just northwest of the upper
low in the Valley City/Cooperstown area with 2-3 inches in a
narrow zone. The upper low is now slowly progressing east and
located near fargo. The surface low was located between Fargo and
Detroit Lakes. This too will slowly move east-northeast. Radar
showing a slowly diminishing rain area in the deformation zone nw
of the upper low btwn Grand Forks and Devils Lake. Band of rain as
well over northern MN and this will slowly lift north as drier air
wraps around the low. Overall as upper low moves away expecting a
diminishing precipitation trend but it will be a slow one with
chances for showers in the nrn/cntrl RRV through midday and over
nw MN thru mid aftn. Enough sunshine late today to lift highs in
the 70s RRV and esp westward while clouds hold all day east of the
RRV.

Some mid and high level cloudiness at times tonight but dry. Tstms
confined to NW ND and NE MT as one of many short waves move
northeast in the upper level flow around a trough over the Pac NW
and W Canada and the upper ridge over the south central states.
This wave will likely spread chances for thunderstorms into ern NDThursday
aftn/evening. SPC has northeastern ND in a marginal risk for late
day/eve svr storms as Capes rise into the 2000 to 3000 range with
just enough sfc heating and increase in dew pts as winds turn
south-southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

Tstm chances continue into Tuesday night. A bit stronger vort max
comes around the upper ridge to our south and into eastern ND
Friday late aftn/eve. This should set off another round of tstms. 

For Saturday through Tuesday...Southwest flow aloft continues over
the region in the early part of the period with the H5 ridge over
the Great Lakes. Otherwise...a frontal system will cross the area
Saturday night and Sunday bringing another round of measurable
pcpn...with a risk for more thunderstorm activity. Behind the
system...drier conditions will return and temperatures will return
to more seasonal values. Highs are expected to be in the mid to
upper 70s...and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2016

for the RRV and NW MN IFR cigs dominate and it will be a slow go
to get rid of them. I do think the RRV sites will rise to low end
MVFR cigs by late morning then some clearing but maybe not til
late in the aftn. Bemidji area looks to stay in the IFR cigs all
day. Most of the short range models too do hint at IFR cigs
holding in BJI tonight and possibly spreading west back into ern
ND but that is uncertain.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Riddle 
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle