417 
FXUS63 KEAX 120456
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 257 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

An MCS from the early morning hours which affected much of eastern
Kansas and western Missouri has heavily stabilized the atmosphere
over northern Missouri. A surface low, currently positioned over
west central Missouri will continue to push eastward ahead of a
deepening upper low over the Northern Plains. The attendant cold
front is draped near the KS/MO border with a warm front extending
eastward, south of the KC metro. This convergent area, mostly south
of the I-70 corridor will be the area to monitor for convection
during the afternoon if the atmosphere can recover from earlier
convection. If inhibition can be overcome, modest CAPE values on the
order of 2000+ j/kg, coupled with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30+
knots, and steep lapse rates will be supportive of strong updrafts
capable of producing hail up to 2 inches with strong and damaging
winds. This is highly dependent on how much CIN can be eroded during
the afternoon hours. The most likely area to destabilize within the
convergent zone will be east of the Highway 65 corridor, and south
of the I-70 corridor. Post-frontal stratus is currently developing
west of this area, and confidence that the KC metro will be heavily
impacted is low at this point. If conditions do ripen for convection
during the mid-afternoon, the system as a whole will be progressive
enough to not have a significant impact with concern to rainfall
amounts and resulting flash flooding. Have generally kept rain
totals under 0.75" for the southeastern counties with amounts near
0.5" for points north. The frontal boundary will push through the
CWA by the early evening hours with convection exiting the area by 9
pm. Cloud cover will the erode behind the boundary as dry air
filters in from the northwest. With a moist surface in place,
cooling temperatures, and clearing sky conditions, patchy fog is
possible across the region tonight, particularly for areas which
received moderate rainfall amounts earlier this morning over eastern
Kansas and western Missouri.

Temperatures behind the frontal boundary will hover in the low 70s
for Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure builds into the area
from the west. Storm chances will then return by Friday as a weak
wave advances into the region. Will need to keep an eye on the
potential for severe as this activity comes into better view, though
at this time, can expect general thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
evening. Saturday looks to remain dry for the time, though the
active pattern will continue through the latter half of the weekend,
extending into the early week. Temperatures will be unseasonably
cool beginning Saturday into Sunday, with warming temperatures
expected by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with a mixture of mid and
high level ceilings overnight and then generally clear skies. Should
see wind speeds increase and become a little gusty by late morning
and then quickly diminish by late afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...MJ