318 
FXUS63 KUNR 110519
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLD
SHRA ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS MAYBE A TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL COUNTY EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST IN THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING INCREASING LSA AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF FORCING FOR LSA NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL AROUND DAWN WED. HENCE...TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE WED MORNING ACROSS THE
FAR NW...ESP FAR NE WY AND THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE SOME
WEAK UPSLOPE FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. GIVEN FAIRLY COLD TEMPS FOR
MAY...STILL EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE BH...AN POSSIBLY FAR NE WY WED MORNING. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL BE DRY GIVEN TERRAIN INFLUENCED DOWNSLOPING AND FAIRLY HIGH
CENTERED LIFT. DID ADD A SLIGHT FOR A SHRA WED AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS GIVEN STEEP LL LAPSE RATES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH DRY PROFILES SUGGEST SPRINKLES AT BEST. WINDY
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW SD PLAINS GIVEN PRESSURE
GRADIENT/CAA/AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. CONTINUED AND SLIGHTLY
EXPANDED THE WIND ADV FOR WED NW SD. GENERALLY COOL CONDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH
W/NW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR A DRY THURSDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WARMUP. AN UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU
NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...MAINLY ACROSS NE WY/SW SD...AS WEAK UPPER ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2016

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING -RASN TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST SD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AREAS IFR CIGS/VSBYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN SD. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR NORTHWEST SD TONIGHT AND THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ014-072-073.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-013.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...HELGESON