337 FXUS65 KTFX 030522 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1120 PM MDT SAT APR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WINDS ARE DECREASING, BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH, WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER, THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT. COULSTON && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0520Z. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A CHINOOK ARCH WILL PROVIDE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH PERIOD... WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...BUT KEPT TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BRITTON && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM MDT SAT APR 2 2016/ TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE TREASURE STATE. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MARIAS PASS AND BROWNING AT TIMES BUT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES ON MONDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MLV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS START OFF THE PERIOD IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TREASURE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME AS MODELS HAVE CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN RAPIDLY AS ENERGY OVER CANADA FORCES NORTHERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MPJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 65 41 66 / 0 20 10 40 CTB 39 62 37 62 / 10 20 10 30 HLN 42 67 39 63 / 10 10 10 60 BZN 36 66 35 64 / 10 20 10 60 WEY 32 52 34 49 / 10 40 20 50 DLN 36 64 36 59 / 10 20 10 60 HVR 41 64 35 73 / 10 10 10 30 LWT 40 63 37 70 / 0 20 10 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS