810 
FXUS63 KLSX 201815
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
115 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2016

Scattered rain/snow showers diminishing and moving south out of
forecast area, so lowered pops. Otherwise, seeing some breaks in
cloud cover, but diurnal cu has developed north of main system. So
better chances of clearing will be this evening. Highs will range
from around 40 over the eastern Ozarks to the upper 40s over
northeast MO/west central IL.

Byrd
&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2016

Upper low currently over the region will continue to slowly drop
swd. This will allow isod to sct showers, rain and/or snow showers,
to continue to drop swd thru the CWA today. Any SHSN shud change to
RA by mid morning. Do not anticipate accumulations with any SHSN.
Across wrn portions of the CWA, precip shud be lighter thru the
morning hours and will go with a mention of flurries for these
regions. Expect most of the precip to be out of the CWA by mid
afternoon.

Expect any breaks in cloud cover to quickly fill in today with cu.
Because of this, have once again trended aob the coolest guidance
across the region. For portions of central MO where more breaks are
possible, have trended slightly warmer, tho still below guidance. 

Tilly

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2016

First forecast concern is threat for widespread sub-freezing temps
in our region for early Monday morning.  Forecast of min temps in
the upper 20s to near 30 continues to look on track for tonight with
what appears to be slightly less cold air but a better ability to
cool thanks to presence of surface RIDGE passing thru late tonight
and clearing skies.  Timing of the RIDGE turning light winds from
the southwest should be late enough to allow the vast majority of
the Watch area to achieve a freeze, with central MO being the least
confident area but still high enough to convert the entire Watch to
a Warning.

Northwest flow aloft will give us a couple of dry days Monday and
Tuesday as strengthening S-SW flow at the surface pushes temps back
to above average values by Tuesday, with a return of 70s for much of
the area. 

By Wednesday flow aloft backs from the SW with increasing rain
chances heading into Wednesday night with a surface cold front moving
thru and a strong upper level disturbance aloft.  While both 0-6km
and 0-1km shear looks quite favorable, lo level moisture could be
better, and instability is limited to where not too concerned about
the severe threat at this time.  It seems the models have a
different depiction of this system each day, so stay tuned, as it may
be quite different again tomorrow. 

Speaking of which, this system was part of what could have been a
late season winter storm on late Thurs-early Fri, but this scenario
looks much less favorable today than 24-48hrs ago with an open system
and a more northerly track.  Instead, a couple days of cooler temps
and dry look to be the preferred way to go now.

TES
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Mar 20 2016

MVFR cigs lifting to VFR most locations. Will see cu scatter out
from west to east by this evening. Otherwise, north winds to
diminish and become light and variable overnight. Then as surface
ridge moves east, winds to pickup from the south on Monday
morning.

Specifics for KSTL: 
MVFR cigs lifting to VFR in metro area. Will see cu scatter out
from west to east by 01z Monday. Otherwise, north winds to
diminish and become light and variable by 04z Monday. Then as
surface ridge moves east, winds to pickup from the southwest by
16z Monday.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone 
     MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-Moniteau MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte 
     Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Bond IL-Calhoun 
     IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Randolph IL-
     Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX