378 FXUS61 KCAR 232121 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 421 PM EST TUE FEB 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INTERIM PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG H5 LOW SPINNING ACRS THE RED RVR OF THE SOUTH WL EVENTUALLY BE OUR IMPENDING STORM TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE EVNG EXPECT DRY WX UNDER RETREATING HIGH BFR INITIAL WV LIFTS TWD THE GULF OF MAINE. AT THE SAME TIME WMFNT WL NOSE UP FM THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT. THIS WL BE OUR INITIAL SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WL PRODUCE A QUICK PD OF 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW BFR GRADUALLY BCMG MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET/FZRA. VRY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT EXISTS ACRS DOWNEAST ZONES DRG THE AFTN WITH 12Z MODELS DIFFERING QUITE A BIT ON UPR LVL H9 TEMP FIELDS. LATEST EURO IS WARMEST WITH NAM BEING COLDEST AND GFS THE COMPROMISE SOLN. HV SIDED WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EC FOR PTYPE AND HV KEPT -FZRA IN FOR AIR TEMPS RIGHT ARND 35F FOR A TIME DRG THE AFTN HRS. MINS FOR TONIGHT WL DIP INTO THE TEENS UNDER CLDY SKIES OVR THE FAR NORTH. MAXES TOMORROW WL RISE INTO THE M30S ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHS WL LKLY BE REACHED IN THE EVNG IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST SXNS. HIGH TEMPS ACRS THE NORTH WL TOP OUT ARND 30 BY 00Z IN THE EVNG. TROF EXPECTED TO GO NEGATIVE AS NORTHERN STREAM S/WV CURRENTLY OVR ALBERTA DIGS INTO BACKSIDE OF EJECTING H5 LOW ACRS THE MID-MS VLY DRG THE AFTN HRS. EXPECT AN EXTENDED PD OF STEADY PCPN BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONT TO BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW MOVG NE FROM OH INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY OF ERN QB. ONLY THE 12Z CANGEM TRACKS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER E INTO NW ME BY LATE THU. FCST HI/LOW TEMPS FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HI TEMPS THU AFTN OVR NW ME REFLECTING INPUT FROM THE CANGEM...BUT EVEN HERE HI TEMPS WILL REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER TO MID 50S FURTHER S AND E. LEADING UP TO THE WARM-UP...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE RISE FROM ERLY WED EVE THRU OVRNGT...WITH THE PRECIP CHGOVR FROM SN...PL AND FZRA TO ALL RN CONTG OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS DURG THIS TM. WE USED MID 30S SFC TEMPS AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE FZRA/RN TRANSITION AND USED A BLEND OF MODEL RAW TEMPS TO PRODUCE FCST HRLY TEMPS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FCST ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE PESSIMISTIC (MEANING HIGH ENDED)...SINCE WE SHOW FZRA OCCURRING WITH TEMPS JUST ABV FZG TO CVR THE POTENTIAL OF CONTD ICE ACCRETION OF ROADWAYS...SPCLY LESSER USED SECONDARY ROADWAYS. WE REDUCED ICE ACCRETION FOR THE ABV FZG AIR TEMPS FZRA PTN OF THE FCST THINKING THAT ABV GROUND OBJECTS WILL NOT BUILD UP MUCH ICE. IN FACT...LLVL WARMING MAY MOVE INTO NRN PTNS OF THE FA A LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY SHOW ATTM...SPCLY CONSIDERING THAT THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER IN BRINGING THE WARM SECTOR NWRD INTO THE REGION. RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONT THU...THEN TAPER TO SCT SHWRS LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FIRST COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...E WINDS WED NGT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSE ON THU AND INCREASE BY THU AFTN...SPCLY ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE LLVL JET WIND SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KT AT 925MB WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND ADV WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH MSL ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGH TRRN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE, CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS FALLING TO 0 TO 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH AND 10 TO 15 ABOVE DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING AND EAST OF US SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MAINE. CANADIAN MODEL SWEEPS THE FRONT THROUGH, BUT GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. IN THE GFS/ECMWF, A WAVE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND BRINGS SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH BUT A MIX OR RAIN CENTRAL/DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CANADIAN MODEL HOWEVER HAS IT AS MOSTLY SNOW SINCE THE PRECEDING ARCTIC FRONT SAGS FURTHER SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES, SO REALLY IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS WILL BE AN AREAWIDE SNOW EVENT OR A SNOW EVENT ONLY IN THE FAR NORTH AND A MIX OR RAIN ELSEWHERE. AFTER MONDAY, IT APPEARS THE NEXT GOOD SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AGAIN, THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION, AS SEEMS TO BE THE STORY ALL THIS WINTER. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: FR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU 10Z FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IFR SETS IN AROUND 10Z IN -SN. MAY SEE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR STRATUS THIS AFTN AND EVNG. FURTHER NORTH EXPECTING MVFR BY 10Z- 12Z BEFORE IFR -SN BEGINS AROUND 14Z. IFR WILL CONTINUE IN MIXED PCPN AT BHB AND BGR BEGINNING AFTER 15Z THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME. SHORT TERM: IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT WED NGT THRU THU WITH MIXED PRECIP CHGNG TO ALL RN...THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR THU NGT AND FRI WITH MIXED RN/SN SHWRS CHGNG TO ALL SN SHWRS BY FRI. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE 25KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO +5 FEET BY 12Z WED. EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD. SHORT TERM: WENT WITH A GLW FOR 12Z THU TO 12Z FRI. WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE GUSTS OVRNGT WED NGT AND THEN LOWER TO SCA CONDITIONS LATER FRI MORN INTO FRI AFTN. KEPT CLOSE TO FCST WW3 GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS DURING THIS TM. && .HYDROLOGY... WENT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES 31...10...5 AND 6 AND NWRD...WHERE THERE IS STILL SIG SN PACK ON THE GROUND AND RVR ICE. WITH THE FCST OF 1.50 TO 2.0 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIV...WHICH WILL MSLY BE RNFL EVEN ACROSS THE N WHERE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNFL WILL INITIALLY OCCUR BEFORE TEMPS WARM-UP FOR RAIN...THE COMBO OF MDT TO HVY RNFL AND RAPIDLY RISING TEMPS WILL MELT THE INITIAL SNFL AND SOME OF THE OLDER SN PACK...RESULTING IN SIG RUN-OFF IN STREAMS AND EVENTUALLY NRN RIVERWAYS THU INTO THU EVE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MINOR STREAM FLOODING AND THE DISLODGING OF RVR ICE FOR POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. URBAN FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...SPCLY IF RN AND SN MELT RUN-OFF IS BLOCKED BY SN CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-031. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>006. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ010-011-015-031-032. WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FARRAR SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...FARRAR/VJN MARINE...FARRAR/VJN HYDROLOGY...VJN