764 FXUS63 KDTX 200847 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 347 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 .DISCUSSION... EXISTING ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING CHARACTERIZED BY SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN AN A BROADER FIELD OF DRY MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS PROCESS INTO A PERSISTENTLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SUSTAINING A GUSTY CONDITION TO THE EXISTING FIRM SOUTHWEST WIND...BUT OF CONSIDERABLY LOWER MAGNITUDE NOW. SHORTWAVE NOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN ON PACE TO RAPIDLY PIVOT ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER MI BY MIDDAY. REORIENTATION OF THE FLOW IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WILL ESTABLISH A PERIOD OF RENEWED WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY. 925 MB TEMPERATURES DEFINING THE EMERGING THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH/EXCEED 10C AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-69 CORRIDOR. SOLID MIXING POTENTIAL THROUGH 900 MB GIVEN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. THIS PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THERE IS A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AN AGGRESSIVE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE...ONE THAT LEAVES READINGS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NOTING THE ECMWF VALUES WHICH CARRY THIS HIGHER END EXPECTATION...WILL LEAN IN THIS DIRECTION AND PROVIDE ANOTHER UPWARD NUDGE TO HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS WILL BRING READINGS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S MANY LOCALES SOUTH OF I-69...LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THIS WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A SUBSEQUENT GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONGER GUSTS TO MIX DOWN. STRONGEST WIND FIELD IN PLACE THIS MORNING...40 TO 45 KNOTS STILL HOLDING ACROSS THE 950 MB LAYER. SOME CONCERN THAT A MORE ZEALOUS EARLY DAY MIXING RESPONSE COULD GENERATE A STRONGER...ALBEIT BRIEF WIND GUST ISSUE /40 TO 45 MPH/ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND SPEED MAGNITUDE IN THE LOWEST 900 MB DIMINISHES. A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR SEEING GUSTS TO THIS MAGNITUDE...WITH GUSTS OTHERWISE LIKELY LANDING IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSES RELATIVELY HARMLESSLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARRIVING BY EARLY EVENING. SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUD WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE TRI-CITIES/THUMB DURING THIS TIME. GREATER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEEPENS. ABSENT OF A FORCING MECHANISM...THIS MOISTURE DEPTH SIMPLY TRANSLATES INTO A THICKENING STRATUS CANOPY. MODESTLY MIXED NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNDER GENERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING ON SUNDAY. AREA REMAINS DISPLACED NORTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SIMPLY A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. NOTABLE DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...BUT STILL A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS ARRIVING IN THE VICINITY OF 40 DEGREES. WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WORKS SOUTHWARD OFF LAKE HURON LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...925 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING A GOOD 7-10 DEGREES DURING THIS TIME. A WEAK SIGNAL OF CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS A MINOR LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY EVENTUALLY FOCUS A VERY LOCALIZED REGION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS STAGE...SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MODEL EVIDENCE TO INCLUDE A MENTION. A GRADUALLY DRYING AND INCREASINGLY STABLE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAVE READINGS BY MONDAY BACK AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. CLOUD TRENDS LIKELY THE ONLY CONCERN... INCREASING DEPTH TO THE DRY AIR WORKS TO SCOUR OUT ANY STUBBORN LOW STRATUS. SHOT OF COLDER AIR SHORT LIVED WITH RETURN FLOW YIELDING A MODEST WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM CENTERED WITHIN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIODS. THE GOVERNING MID LEVEL ENERGY DRIVING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A DEEPER SYSTEM STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY FROM ANY DEGREE OF PROPER SAMPLING...AND THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ACROSS THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOMAIN. WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION OF THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN SUGGEST THIS ONE BEARS WATCHING...A MORE SIZABLE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CERTAINLY WITHIN THE ENVELOP OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. && .MARINE... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT MORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MANY MODELS AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING WILL OVERLAP WITH THE LOW LEVEL CORE OF ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY TODAY. AT THIS POINT...WITH SUCH A NARROW WINDOW OF POSSIBLE GALES...WILL LEAN TOWARD NO HEADLINE FOR GALES. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS FOR THE DAY WITH A RANDOM GUST TO GALE FORCE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SAGINAW BAY WHICH REMAINS ICE COVERED AND ACTING MORE LIKE TERRAIN THAN WATER AND ALSO ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF STRONGER WINDS. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND USHER HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1210 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2016 WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO EASE THIS EVENING IN THE TIGHT GEOPOTENTIAL GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMIC AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN LIGHT OF CURRENT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE WINDOW...WILL EXTEND STRONGER WINDS UNTIL 09Z. PROGRESSIVE BACK EDGE OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS SUPPORTS JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF CLOUD AT THE FRONT END WITH AN AGGRESSIVE CLEARING TREND DURING THE DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATE...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MAIN KINEMATIC AXIS OVERHEAD. FOR DTW...WEST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE STILL GOING STRONG. SUSPECT WINDS TO EASE NOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DID EXTEND STRONG WIND GUSTS INTO 09Z. DIURNAL CLOUD IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING HEIGHTS BELOW 5000 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......DRK AVIATION.....CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).