405 FXUS62 KMHX 090854 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 354 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE A BLAST OF VERY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WITH INITIAL SHRT WV AROUND BASE OF UPR LOW WILL BE MOVING OFF COAST NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/PT CLDY SKIES FOLLOWING FOR PART OF MORNING. SECONDARY SHRT WV ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SOME SCU/AC DEVELOPING LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF PSBL OVER WRN AND NRN SECTIONS WITH THIS CLOUDINESS BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LVLS WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANY PCPN REACHING GROUND WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW...THUS STICKING WITH DRY FCST. HIGHS MAINLY UPR 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CLOUDINESS WITH SHRT WV ENERGY WILL CONTINUE INTO EVENING...THEN SOME CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL DROP MIN TEMPS INTO MID TO UPR 20S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S OBX EVEN WITH WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH KEEPING MIXED ATMOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 AM TUE...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NE STATES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE WED AND WED NIGHT WHILE DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN US. PRED DRY AND COLD WED AND THU. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WED NIGHT...THOUGH EXPECT MOST OF PRECIP TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS WED IN THE LOW 40S AND 35-40 DEG THU...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z SOLUTIONS NOW SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG FORCING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WHILE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE SOME -RA/-SN SHOWERS. ECMWF REMAINS WARMER THEN THE GFS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...WITH PTYPE MAINLY LIQUID WHILE THE GFS SUPPORTS MORE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. WILL CONTINUE SC -RA/-SN MENTION THOUGH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH VERY COLD/DRY AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION. VERY COLD 1035-1040MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NNW SAT AND SUN. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...AND EVEN COLDER FOR SUN. WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING SUNDAY...COMBINED WITH GUSTY NLY WINDS IT WILL FEEL LIKE TEMPS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S ALONG THE COAST...BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL KEEP SC MENTION OF -SN SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER BANKS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH STRONG FORCING OVER THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL NNW FLOW. EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE PUSHING A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON AND TUE...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED SC POP FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...AREAS OF FOG WITH IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING FOR KPGV AND KISO AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME DUE TO CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS WHERE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRED EARLIER IN EVENING. THIS FOG WILL SPREAD TOWARD KEWN AND KOAJ NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 10Z AS WEST WINDS PICK UP WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ON FRONT OFFSHORE TO E-NE. SOME VFR CIG SCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WILL PERSIST INTO TUE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 325 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT WED AND THU AFTERNOONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS AREA WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH REINFORCING FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SPEEDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND BY LATE MORNING...AND NO CHANGES TO SCA. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER PORTIONS OF ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT LATEST GDNC DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG ENOUGH PERIOD FOR SCA ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CAA AS ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS IN FROM NW. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE UNDERDONE BY 3-5 FT WITH LARGE DANGEROUS SWELL OVER NRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...AND RELIED ON MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BUT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED SEAS PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 AM TUE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 FT OR HIGHER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS FRI WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8FT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE SWELLS PRODUCING OCEAN OVERWASH DURING HIGH TIDE. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 WILL LIKELY BE CLOSED NEAR KITTY HAWK AND THE NORTH END OF OCRACOKE ISLAND WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS MORNING. PREV DISC...LINGERING VERY LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO OCEAN OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY ALONG HATTERAS ISLAND. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 IN THE USUAL VULNERABLE LOCATIONS COULD BECOME WATER COVERED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ104. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JBM/CQD MARINE...JBM/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX