838 FXUS64 KCRP 052150 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 350 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT VERY STRONG. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR ALL OF THE AREA...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. && .MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE GULF WATERS BY 15Z SATURDAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS. WILL EXPIRE THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 21Z SATURDAY AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT 00Z SUNDAY. SCEC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER (SATURDAY)...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL MIX DOWN BY MID MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER OVER THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY BUT RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 15 PERCENT. SO INCLUDED ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS IN A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 17-23Z SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME ONSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND GULF WATERS. GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE REMAINS SLIM...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. BUT...THIS REINFORCEMENT OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE DAYS TO COME. WINDS WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 49 70 38 70 45 / 40 10 0 0 0 VICTORIA 43 65 36 68 41 / 40 20 0 0 0 LAREDO 44 70 40 73 45 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALICE 45 70 36 72 42 / 30 10 0 0 0 ROCKPORT 51 67 42 66 47 / 40 20 0 0 0 COTULLA 41 68 34 73 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 46 69 36 71 43 / 30 10 0 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 51 67 45 66 50 / 40 20 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD... JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN... NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ TMT/89...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM