839 
FXUS62 KTAE 240928
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
428 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging will build in from the west. As the center of
the surface high settles over the Tri-state region by late
afternoon, northerly winds will become light and variable. After a
cold start to the day, temperatures will recover into the lower to
mid 50s this afternoon under sunny skies.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The surface high will shift to the east of our forecast area by
tonight to the coastal Carolinas, with weak return flow beginning
and 850mb temperatures projected to steadily rise all the way
through 12Z Monday. The combination of a WAA regime and the
surface high being situated so far away from our forecast area is
not typically favorable for a freeze. However, MOS guidance
continues to forecast a freeze, and wind speeds are forecast to be
fairly light, even by raw models. The official forecast continues
to show lows around 32, but confidence is not high enough in a
freeze to warrant an additional watch or warning at this time.

For the remainder of the short term period, steady warming will
continue with warm air advection ahead of a slowly advancing cold
front. Model guidance is in good agreement in keeping most QPF to
the west of our area through Tuesday afternoon, and thus we have
trimmed back PoPs slightly to reflect a drier forecast through
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday could reach 70 degrees in some areas.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

There is still some disagreement on the evolution of the synoptic
pattern mid-week. The operational 00Z GFS continues to show a more
progressive, open wave aloft with little to no surface
cyclogenesis, while the 00Z ECMWF counterpart continues to show a
Gulf low developing and tracking over north-central Florida. The
end result is not extremely different, and we felt that the WPC
guidance was a good compromise for now. This brings likely PoPs
into the area between late Tuesday Night and Wednesday evening,
with some rain potentially lingering into Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with unlimited
ceilings. Winds will be light from the northwest becoming light
and variable by this afternoon as surface high pressure builds
over the region.

&&

.Marine...

With the expiration of the Small Craft Advisory, a SCEC headline
was added for the early morning hours for a brief period of 15-20
knots before winds diminish more rapidly today. After that, a lull
of quieter marine weather is expected until the next low pressure
system arrives mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Dispersion values will be low today due to very light transport
winds. There are no other fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

Minor flooding continues for the Apalachicola River at Blountstown
due to releases from the Woodruff Dam. The Choctawhatchee River
will reach minor flood stage at Caryville on Sunday and at Bruce
on Monday due to recent rain. Significant rainfall is not expected
in the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  30  64  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Panama City   53  39  62  53  67 /   0   0   0  10  20 
Dothan        53  32  62  48  66 /   0   0   0  10  30 
Albany        53  29  62  43  68 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Valdosta      55  30  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Cross City    55  29  65  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10 
Apalachicola  52  38  62  53  67 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning FOR 
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal 
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North 
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS