989 FXUS62 KTAE 101555 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1055 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 .Near Term [Through Today]... A high-amplitude long wave trough is in place across much of central and eastern North America this morning. A cold front has pushed across the forecast area. In the wake of the front, cold air advection will limit diurnal temperature rises today with afternoon highs only expected to be 4 to 6 degrees higher than this morning's lows. Look for highs around 50 in Southeast AL increasing southeastward to the lower 60s in Dixie County FL. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. && .Marine... Advisory level winds in the wake of a cold front will continue through most of the day today with advisory level seas persisting into the evening offshore. Buoy observations indicate that advisory conditions are occurring over the eastern waters as well and we adjusted the hazard grid accordingly. We also raised seas by about a foot for today based on observations. Monday and Tuesday will feature low winds and seas as high pressure moves overhead. As an area of low pressure begins to develop in the western Gulf, winds will gradually increase through Wednesday, with another round of advisory conditions possible on Thursday. Winds should calm again to end the week behind Thursday's low. && .Hydrology... The Apalachicola and lower Choctawhatchee Rivers remain in flood as of this morning. On the Choctawhatchee, Caryville has dropped below flood stage, but Bruce will not do so until Thursday. The Apalachicola will remain in flood for several more days. In general, river levels across the region will continue their downward trends as dry conditions will prevail through late in the week. && .Prev Discussion [613 AM EST]... .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... CAA will continue into the night tonight as surface ridging builds in from the west. Expect temperatures to plummet into the upper 20s across the interior Florida panhandle, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest Georgia. Elsewhere, temperatures will range from the low 30s across south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Coastal locations and the southeast Big Bend will dip into the upper 30s. Some patchy frost will be possible across S.E. AL and S.W. GA where the eastern edge of the calm center of the surface ridge may encroach by dawn. Wind chills will range from the low to mid 20s to the northwest, and in the low 30s to the southeast. Monday will be sunny with highs in the low to mid 50s. With the surface ridge forecast to be directly overhead on Monday night, radiational cooling will dominate and lows are forecast to fall to the upper 20s for most locations away from the immediate coast. Still kept the forecast above the MOS consensus due to the potential for some high cloudiness, though trended downward expecting a little less cloud cover than was previously forecast. Frost will be likely as well across the interior Tri- State region Monday night. Another sunny day is expected on Tuesday, with highs only a few degrees warmer than Monday, nearer to average. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The trend of dry and cool weather will continue through the start of the extended range forecast. A change is expected on Thursday as a southern stream wave will move across the northern Gulf, resulting in surface cyclogenesis. There is still some disagreement between models as to the exact strength and positioning of the low, but they appear to be coming into better agreement. Thus, a little more confidence exists in a solution that brings the low through the northeast Gulf, but far enough south that rain will be most likely across north Florida, decreasing quickly into Alabama and Georgia. With highs expected to be in the 50s, it appears as though Thursday will be quite unpleasantly cool and wet. With the surface ridge sliding east through this event, in the wake, more moist east/southeasterly flow is expected with low rain chances, but moderating temperatures. Another low pressure system could bring more rain by the end of the period. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Monday] This morning MVFR CIGS are possible at DHN and ABY until mid- morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Northwesterly winds will be gusty across the region today. .Fire Weather... Much drier air is moving into the region today. RH values will remain above 50 today. Monday and Tuesday RH values will be very low in the 20s. However, Red Flag conditions are not expected since winds are forecast to be light on Monday and Tuesday. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 57 32 55 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 55 35 51 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 50 28 50 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 53 28 52 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 58 31 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 63 37 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 59 37 54 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty- Madison-North Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight FOR Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning FOR Baker- Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning FOR Coffee- Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT HYDROLOGY...WOOL