374 FXUS62 KTAE 081128 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 628 AM EST FRI JAN 8 2016 .Aviation... [Through 12Z Saturday]... Rain has now cleared all terminals and is finished for the TAF period. IFR cigs and patchy vis have spread in behind the rain as expected. There is an overwhelming model consensus that MVFR cigs will prevail at all terminals through the day, and possibly through tonight as well. Have kept the TAFs pessimistic regarding any scattering to VFR. && .Prev Discussion [413 AM EST]... .Near Term [Through Today]... A well defined +PV anomaly over the Southeast and northern Gulf can be found on WV imagery this morning. At the surface, the southern reaches of the forcing associated with the anomaly were able to induce cyclogenesis across the more unstable Gulf waters. A 03z analysis depicted the low south of the Florida Panhandle, with a weak trough extending north into north Florida and south Alabama. This entire feature has moved east through the night with the trough axis well defined on radar imagery along the sharp back edge of the rain shield. Expect rain to rather quickly come to an end from west to east this morning, with the large rain shield out of the Tri- State region by 8 or 9 am EST. Though the area of +PV will be moving northeast through the day, it's large enough that it should have the effect of reinforcing the surface ridge, while the back edge of the surface low also reinforces the stable northeasterly surface flow. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place, expect low clouds to be slow to scatter, if at all through the day. If anyone breaks out, it will most likely be across north Florida, and later this afternoon. Thus, will show high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s across Florida today, with low 60s and possibly some upper 50s across southeast Alabama and south Georgia. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... The area will be between systems at the beginning of the short term, but as a shortwave lifts from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday and a weaker wave in the flow pushes across the Southeast, rain will return to the CWA for Saturday. While low level shear with the system is marginal around 30kts, instability with the system is not impressive and thus have only included only isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday. As the shortwave and associated surface low lift into the Ohio Valley Saturday night, precipitation will begin to clear out of the area. Despite the drier weather for Sunday as high pressure centered across the central U.S. builds into the CWA, a few clouds will still stick around for the day. High temperatures on Saturday will be above normal while more near to just below normal for Sunday. Low temperatures will remain well above normal, mainly in the 50s with some upper 40s Sunday morning. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... High pressure will dominate at the beginning of the long term allowing for cooler and drier conditions. A shortwave sweeps across the eastern U.S. on Tuesday, but remains well north of the CWA. High pressure will build in behind that and slide into the Southeast on Wednesday. Guidance begins to deviate at the end of the long term with the ECMWF faster than the GFS with the next shortwave. This results in the ECMWF bringing precipitation back into the CWA Thursday night while the GFS holds off until Friday afternoon. Have shown limited PoPs at the very end of the extended. .Marine... A surface low is situated over the offshore waters and the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure set up across the eastern U.S. has allowed for stronger winds this morning than the models are depicting. Given this, have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 12z for the middle marine zones. As the surface low continues to move eastward, the winds will diminish later this morning and remain below advisory levels. Another wave will bring cautionary to advisory level winds for Saturday into Sunday. Beyond this, high pressure will dominate with mostly light to moderate winds. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. .Hydrology... Area rivers that are still in flood, such as the Choctawhatchee, Flint and Apalachicola Rivers will continue their falling trend today. Rainfall amounts with this current event should be fairly limited with values mainly less than one inch with isolated higher amounts across the western Florida panhandle. With the rain expected on Saturday, rainfall totals should be around one inch. These totals should not result in any significant rises on the main rivers. Any impacts would mainly be to slow down the rate of decline. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 68 54 71 51 60 / 10 20 70 30 10 Panama City 67 57 71 53 58 / 10 20 70 20 10 Dothan 62 51 66 47 54 / 10 20 70 20 10 Albany 63 49 68 48 56 / 10 20 70 40 10 Valdosta 65 53 70 52 61 / 20 20 70 40 10 Cross City 71 54 74 55 65 / 40 20 70 40 10 Apalachicola 67 57 72 55 61 / 10 20 70 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning FOR Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...FIEUX LONG TERM...FIEUX AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...FIEUX FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...FIEUX