200 
FXUS63 KPAH 051954 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
149 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

High confidence in the short term. The latest surface analysis
depicted a surface high pressure oriented from southwest to
northeast. The ridge axis extended from East Texas through the
Ohio Valley to New England. As this shifts east today the flow
will shift to the southeast and finally southerly tonight. This
will open up the gulf and transport warmer moist air into the
heartland ahead of the next system. 

Have not changed much with the arrival time which will be
Thursday morning in the Ozark's and spread across the rest of the
area during the afternoon. We do have showalters near zero with K
index values in the mid 30s Thursday afternoon in the Ozarks and
spreading across the rest of the area Thursday evening. So
introduced a slight chance of thunder but nothing impressive at
this time. Rainfall totals are also not impressive with most
models giving us between a quarter to a half inch. This should not
have a major impact on flooding across the area especially on the
larger rivers as they will be near steady or falling when this
rain event takes place. Temperatures will continue to rise with
the approach of this system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

The operational models continue to struggle with the details,
especially mid tropospheric energy within the overall broad
trof forecast to be over the nation into the weekend. We will
continue to use a sliding scale approach and increase the
influence of the ECENS/GEFS in our forecast approach the 
farther out into the extended we go.

Friday, departing s/wv energy means just low or slight chance
PoPs for light showers through day. Meanwhile mid level energy over
the central/ southern Rockies will head into the Plains and into our
area from Friday through Saturday. We expect an increasing chance of
showers Friday night west, spreading from west to east across the
area Saturday, coincident with a surface cold frontal passage. Would
not rule out thunder Saturday given elevated instability parameters.
Saturday night, s/wv energy will move east and carry the deeper
moisture away from the area. During this time, decent cold advection
should be underway. Thus, the possibility of a change over from
liquid to wintry precip seems probable. However given the varying
nature of the s/wv, speed of departing moisture and of course
overall uncertainty with how accurate the models and their ensemble
means are to this point, will keep continue to keep PoPs in modest
change category and spare details at this point. Have meager slight
chance PoPs in Sunday (early). Whatever happens should be in the
form of flurries, or very light snow showers. Monday and Tuesday
will be seasonably cold and essentially dry. Given the progressive
flow, cannot rule out minor perturbations bringing some clouds and
maybe very minor wintry precip. Confidence too low to include at
this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016

VFR through midday Wednesday. Occasional high clouds. Light winds.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$