716 FXUS61 KRLX 011928 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 228 PM EST FRI JAN 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A DRY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...HAS TEMPORARILY ERODED THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ALLOWED SUNSHINE TO BOOST TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES. HOWEVER...AS THE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO MOST OF THE AREA ON COLD ADVECTION BY LATER THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM LACKS MOISTURE DEPTH...THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS IN...BRINGING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. LOOK TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ALL IN ALL...GETTING CENTRAL AND SOUTH INTO A QUIET PATTERN FOR EARLY JANUARY/EARLY WINTER. UPPER TROUGH EXITS...AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT UPPER TROUGH AXIS DROPS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE NAM TAKING THE FEATURE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM SOLUTION...HOWEVER IS NOT CLUSTERED IN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS WHICH BRING A MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO OUR CWA AS OPPOSED TO THE FLATTER AND FASTER NAM. SINCE THE GUIDANCE GIVES THE CLUSTERED MODELS A BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH A MORE PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST THAN TO FORECAST WHOLESALE CHANGES FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS SHOWING COLDER AIR SEEPING INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...BUT 850 MB AIR IS COLD ENOUGH THAT FEEL SOME FLURRIES ARE WARRANTED IN THE NORTHERN WV COUNTIES AND WV MOUNTAINS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING SOME. QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS POSSIBLY BEING GRAZED BY A SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST COAST FOR THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL INCLUDE VERY SMALL POPS. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY... A DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST WV TONIGHT. REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON... A BRIEF BIG BREAK IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...HTS...PKB... CRW...BKW...CKB FROM THE PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR VFR SCT-BKN STRATOCU AOA 3500 FEET...WHILE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS INCLUDING EKN REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS. GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 15 TO 25 MPH. TONIGHT... 23Z-03Z...MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN INVADE THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...EXCEPT SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA INCLUDING HTS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED STRATOCU. REMAINDER OF AREA...MVFR CEILINGS 1000-2000 FEET...EXCEPT ABOVE 3000 FEET OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND RESTRICTING VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...EXCEPT HIGHER IN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY... AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCT STRATOCU SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO COVER ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN FCST TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...JMV