872 FXUS63 KEAX 282115 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 315 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 315 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 A band of wintry precipitation will continue to pivot across the CWA this afternoon on the west/northwest side of a surface low that is currently lifting northeast. Precipitation will gradually dissipate on the south side of the band as forcing pulls northeast, and dry air combined with the eastward departure of the low will eat away at precipitation from west to east this afternoon and evening. Rapidly decreasing temperatures aloft have changed precipitation type to all snow from west to east as well, and this cold air will continue to wrap across the southeast side of the band, bringing the changeover across the length of the CWA within the next few hours. Total snow accumulations in this band could be as high as 3 to 4 inches, due to the quickly accumulating dendritic flakes and moderate precipitation rates. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible on the back side of the precipitation as saturation is lost aloft, so have included this on the back side of the snow for this evening into the early overnight hours. Have expanded the winter weather advisory to all but the far southeastern corner of the CWA where temperatures are still above freezing, precipitation type has been mostly rain, and the changeover to snow will not occur until the band has almost lifted out of those areas. Snow cover will impact temperatures in areas that are able to accumulate a few inches, so have lowered highs a bit for Tuesday across the western half of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday) Issued at 315 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 The remainder of the forecast looks relatively tranquil with generally a cold and dry pattern. The exception comes on Tuesday night as a fast-moving shortwave trough moves from the Southern Plains into the Middle Missouri Valley. With limited moisture in the wake of today's system and the short window of ascent with the quick movement of the wave, the impacts will be relatively minimal for the area. The vertical temperature profile will support all snow with any precipitation that forms. Currently, total snowfall accumulations will average 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch. The snow is expected to occur Tuesday night coinciding with minimal travel, further reducing overall impacts. Otherwise, cold weather will be firmly entrenched for the remainder of the work week, with highs in the 20s to lower 30s and lows in the teens to single digits in a few areas. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected until Thursday when drier air advects into the region. Temperatures moderate closer to normal levels by the weekend as warmer H85 temperatures move into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015 A band of wintry precipitation will continue to pivot across the KC area TAF sites, gradually transitioning from a sleet/snow mixture to all snow this afternoon. Further to the north at KSTJ, light freezing drizzle will mix with and gradually transition to snow. All wintry precipitation is expected to exit the TAF sites by 00z, and although IFR ceilings will trail behind the precipitation shield, they also should exit before 06z. && .EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ060. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057- 102>105. MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ024- 025-031-032-038-039-043>045-053-054. Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>023-028>030-037. && $$ SHORT TERM...Laflin LONG TERM...Blair AVIATION...Laflin