379 FXUS61 KRLX 261833 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 133 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AS WARM FRONT TODAY...THEN OSCILLATES IN VICINITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLDER AIR MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030 AM UPDATE. LATEST MODELS TRENDS STILL HAS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THEY AND RADAR TRENDS ALSO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND QPF WILL BE MAINLY TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA...PERHAPS BRUSHING UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THUS...THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR QUEEN SHOALS ON THE ELK RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED ALONG WITH A REDUCTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST IN OF THE QPF. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE ISSUE NOT SET IN STONE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... AS OF 07Z...SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STUCK IN PLACE NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TODAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD END UP WELL NORTH OF CWA BY TONIGHT...SO HAVE POPS DRYING OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND HI-RES WRF NMM TO TRY TO TIME THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN TODAY. IN GENERAL HAVE A WIDESPREAD HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF FORECAST...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED. COOLED HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR TWO BY BLENDING IN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. USED ECMWF MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A WARMER LOW TEMP FORECAST AS WE WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WARM AND JUICY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. WET AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT H850 WILL BE AROUND 11C BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT COULD BECOME QUASI STATIONARY SOME WHERE SOUTH OF THE AREA. ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE NAM. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE OF BOUYANCY BUT NOT IMPRESSED AS VALUES ARE LOW. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50 KNOTS. SO CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...INCLUDED THUNDER OVER AREAS WITH HIGHEST SFC CAPE. FOR MONDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING N ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT WITH FLOW INCREASING UNDER DOWNSLOPING FLOW...INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD VARY. EXPECT ANOTHER AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. USED THE SUPER BLEND AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ONE MORE SYSTEM TO DEAL WITH MIDWEEK BUT AFTER THAT...WE WILL FINALLY SEE THIS MESS CLEAR OUT OF HERE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR WORKING IN TO END 2015 WITH PERIODS SHSN BY WEEKS END. DESPITE THE LAST MINUTE CHILL TO END DECEMBER...THE MONTH WILL PROBABLY STILL END UP AS THE WARMEST ON RECORD AT SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS...AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST OF A HTS TO CKB LINE. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS IN THE WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. BY 01Z VFR CEILINGS AND A SOUTH WIND 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA. THINK SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF THE WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH. KEPT IT MVFR FOR NOW FOR MOST MAJOR TAF SITES...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AROUND 12Z EKN...AND CONTINUED VFR BKW. AFTER 13Z...FRONT RETURNS SOUTHEAST AS COOL FRONT...REACHING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z SUNDAY. VFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SPEED OF BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON MAY VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. FOG TONIGHT MAY BE LESS THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND MOIST AIR/HIGH DECEMBER DEW POINTS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047. OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ075-076-083>087. KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MZ/30 NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JMV