742 FXUS61 KRLX 181023 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 523 AM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND LINGER ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECTING LITTLE RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ENSUING COLD AIR ADVECTION AS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...RATHER GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH TO WARRANT MENTION OF -SHSN OR FLURRIES LATER TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR -SHSN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAY HELP TO ENHANCE A PERIOD OF ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AREA WIDE. HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE A TRANSITION TO -DZ OR -FZDZ LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS IN LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AND CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL TREND TO THE LONG TERM PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME UNDER BROAD SCALE RIDGING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES...WITH THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASSES LOCKED WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTHERN CANADA. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TO VFR TAKES PLACE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER 22Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY GENERALLY AFTER 15Z...AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE GUSTS IN THE 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. -SHSN POSSIBLE AREA WIDE...GENERALLY AFTER 18Z...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY LINGER LONGER TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 12/18/15 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...SL