766 
FXUS64 KHGX 171118
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
518 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DRY QUIET WX TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE TX THESE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH OVERHEAD BY FRI. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT/BELOW NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME. CHANGES STILL IN THE CARDS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UP-
PER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LONGWAVE TROF
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS/
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPS/INCREASED RAIN CHCS
BY SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS DURING THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE (EMBEDDED IN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT) AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT (PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUES). CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK AND BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS RATHER QUICKLY. HOWEVER NOT SURE WE WILL BE
WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MODELS
KEEP THE DEEP SWLY FLOW/SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT IN PLACE. ATTM HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED. THIS SHOULD GIVE US
WARM/WET WX LEADING UP (AND POSSIBLY INCLUDING) CHRISTMAS DAY. 41

&&

.MARINE... 
OFFSHORE FLOW OF 20-25 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THIS MORNING FROM THE COAST OUTWARD. SEAS ALREADY DOWN TO 3 TO 5
FEET. NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING OUT OF NEW MEXICO AT 4 AM AND
SHOULD SWING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD
SUNRISE FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BACK UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SO WILL PROBABLY NEED ANOTHER SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY BECOMING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS.
MOISTURE SPREADS BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY BE BACK
TO A SEA FOG REGIME BY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH MAINTAINS A SOUTHERLY FLOW MOST OF THE WEEK EXCEPT
FOR A BRIEF WOBBLE SOUTHWARD OF A FRONT LATE TUESDAY. 
45

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  38  57  36  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  39  58  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
GALVESTON (GLS)            62  46  58  49  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$