833 
FXUS64 KOUN 072149
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
349 PM CST MON DEC 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS OR FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THEN...
THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW A TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S. AS IT APPROACHES THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. IT MAY DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
OKLAHOMA ON KANSAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PER THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND DGEX... IT MAY AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS OKLAHOMA/KANSAS PER THE ECMWF... OR IT MAY AMPLIFY AS A
CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS PER THE
CANADIAN. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ACROSS THE BOARD...
ALTHOUGH MOST FAVORING THE OPERATIONAL FASTER/OPEN SYSTEM BUT WITH
QUITE A FEW ALSO RUNNING WITH THE LOW CLOSING TO THE WEST AND
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND/OR OKLAHOMA. WITH THE VAST SPREAD IN THE
MODELS... IT IS HARD TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION AND HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS. IF A SOUTHERN SOLUTION COMES TO PASS... MAY SEE SOME
MORE PRECIP IN THE AREA. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH COLD AIR
TO TAP INTO... ALTHOUGH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW THICKNESSES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER LOW ITSELF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  65  39  67 /   0   0   0   0 
HOBART OK         35  65  37  66 /   0   0   0   0 
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  71  39  69 /   0   0   0   0 
GAGE OK           31  68  34  69 /   0   0   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     35  64  36  67 /   0   0   0   0 
DURANT OK         42  67  44  67 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$