785 FXUS62 KFFC 241117 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 617 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2015/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE....WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...WV LOOP SHOWS THAT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TODAY...SO SKIES SHOULN'T BE COMPLETELY CLEAR. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE...ALTHOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. NLISTEMAA LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REX BLOCK OVER E PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL KEEP ALL MAJOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WELL TO OUR WEST WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE. HOWEVER...STRONG /1045+MB/ SFC HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA RIDGING DOWN APPALACHIANS WILL KEEP CAD PATTERN IN PLACE. EASTERLY 925-850MB FLOW ATOP NORTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 295K THETA SFC AND WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME AT H85. BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE BY THURS MORNING BUT STILL KEEP A LAYER OF DRY AIR VERY NEAR THE SFC SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIP ON THANKSGIVING DAY...JUST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MTNS...THO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INPUT INTO ACTUAL FORECAST. CAD PATTERN TO LINGER ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. PARENT CYCLONE WILL ALREADY HAVE QUICKLY DARTED WELL INTO HUDSON BAY AREA...CAUSING BOUNDARY TO STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA.DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING BOUNDARY INTO/VERY NEAR NW GA BY 12Z SAT WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS SHUNTS PRECIP CHANCES AND CP AIR MASS BEHIND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP ANOTHER CAD WEDGE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS 1030MB HIGH PARKS ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BIGGEST QUESTION IN LONG TERM IS THE PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND PUSH A SWATH OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MINOR PERTURBATIONS IN THE H5 FLOW FIELD INDUCED BY THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SFC CYCLOGENESIS IN THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL EXIST. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SFC LOW WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE SE. PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY. FORECAST CAPE VALUES NEAR ZERO SO FOR NOW JUST EXPECTING RAIN. GFS FASTER TO DRY THINGS OUT TUES WHILE ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF FOR NOW AFTER EVALUATING BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. KOVACIK && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MODELS ARE BRINING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...FOR NOW LEFT ANY CLOUDS AT FEW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO SCT DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SPEEDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10KT ON WEDNESDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 57 36 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 ATLANTA 57 39 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 56 33 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 CARTERSVILLE 57 36 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 60 42 64 48 / 0 0 5 0 GAINESVILLE 56 38 56 42 / 0 0 0 0 MACON 60 38 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 57 35 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 58 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 59 41 64 49 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION...