036 FXUS64 KMAF 102043 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 243 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2015 .DISCUSSION... Southwest flow aloft persists across the region today ahead of an approaching upper trough to the west. At the surface, a lee surface trough extends south through eastern New Mexico resulting in southwest winds across most areas. As of 2pm CST, temperatures have warmed into the 70s most locations with some scattered high clouds moving overhead. Overnight tonight, the upper trough to the west will quickly move east through the Four Corners region then head NE into the Central Plains throughout the day Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong upper jet moving around the base of the trough will move over the region, increasing wind speeds areawide late tonight persisting through Wednesday morning. The area of greatest concern for high winds will be the Guadalupe Mountains, particularly in the highest elevations. Sustained wind speeds are forecasted to range from 35mph at the base of the mountains to near 55mph or higher at the peaks. As a result, a High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains late tonight through mid afternoon Wednesday. In addition, areas across Culberson county, portions of the southeast New Mexico plains and far northern Permian Basin may approach Wind Advisory criteria. Decided to go ahead and issue the Wind Advisory for Culberson county but will hold off on including other areas for now. Elevated winds and drier air will likely lead to a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions across some locations Wednesday afternoon, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details. Wind speeds will diminish greatly Wednesday evening as the upper trough exits to the NE and a surface ridge slowly settles into the region. Cooler temperatures will accompany the ridge and lows look to range from the low 30s NW to the upper 30s/low 40s SE by early Thursday morning. Parts of southeast New Mexico, western Permian Basin, Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau will likely see low temperatures at or below freezing. Will go ahead and issue a Freeze Watch for these areas. Near or slightly below normal temperatures will persist Thursday through the beginning of the weekend. Rain chances will remain nil through Friday but look to return this weekend as another upper low approaches from the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... The passage of a Pacific cold front Wed AM will usher in cooler, drier and windier conditions. The windiest conditions are expected across SE NM and the northern PB, while the lowest RHs are expected across the western PB and lower elevations of the Trans Pecos, including the Pecos/Marfa/Ft. Stockton areas. In general there is not expected to be good alignment of the winds and dry air, an exception may be across the Pecos to Ft Stockton areas where local Red Flag weather is possible. Most of the grass across the area is still holding moisture, only Tatum and Marfa areas have had hard freezes. According to the NFDRS maps high fire danger will be possible Wed in SE NM, parts of the Trans Pecos and PB. The upshot is even though on Wed there will be an increased risked of fire (relative to recent days) we will hold off on the issuance of any highlights. If nothing else a fire danger statement will likely be needed Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 53 68 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 46 66 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 55 79 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 52 69 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 41 56 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 45 64 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 43 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 50 68 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 50 69 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 49 69 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County. TX...High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. && $$ 49/27