014 FXUS64 KCRP 091147 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 547 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015 .DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION CYCLE. && .AVIATION... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAFS FOR TODAY. TODAY...VFR. SOME MARINE STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION MOST OF THE NIGHT. EXPECTING KALI AND POSSIBLY KCRP IS SEE SOME OF THE LOWER CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ANY STRATUS WILL BE LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT AT ALL THE TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TOWARDS THE EAST VERY LATE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR. WITH THE SURFACE FLOW VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. DECENT INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR POOLING OF MOISTURE AROUND 2-3KFT LEVELS AND FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR GROUND FOG. OUT NEAR KLRD A FEW SHOWERS/AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAKING FOR LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST MON NOV 9 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE DRIVERS SEAT. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND PULL IN SOME DRIER AIR KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN CHECK WITH WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. START TO SEE A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION TO OCCUR. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME PRETTY WELL SATURATED LATE TONIGHT TO ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. SKY COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES TONIGHT UNDER THE MODIFYING AIRMASS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OFF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED RAIN ACTIVITY WEST, THOUGH NOT ENOUGH LIFT WILL MAKE BETTER CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID-DAY HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. WE WILL THEN WARM INTO THE LOW-80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MARINE: NO HAZARDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL BUT THIS DEPARTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TODAY AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW DIMINISHES. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON WED. THE AIRMASS WL BE TOO CAPPED AND HAVE INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN THROUGH EARLY WED AFTN. HOWEVER...BY LATE WED AFTN INTO THE EVE THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN/BREAK THE CAP TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND ADJACENT WATERS. ALSO...THE MOISTURE PROFILE WL BECOME DEEPER WITH TIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...WL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH SLIGHT CHC AT BEST FOR THE MORE STABLE AND DRIER BRUSH COUNTRY. THURSDAY WL BE COOLER AND DRIER AS A BROAD SFC RDG BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE CWA STRETCHING SWD. THIS WL RESULT IN PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING WHICH IN TURN WL LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD CVR ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SRN AREAS. TEMPS WL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. BY SUNDAY...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC ASCENT WL INCREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH SVRL SRN STREAM S/WVS. WL GO WITH AREAWIDE CHC POPS AS A RESULT FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE INCREASED FORCING AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...WL MENTION THUNDER ON SUNDAY AS WELL. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN BY THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE PERSISTENT STRONG AND LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 65 82 71 87 / 10 10 10 10 20 VICTORIA 73 58 79 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 40 LAREDO 76 66 84 72 87 / 10 10 20 10 0 ALICE 76 64 84 69 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 74 66 80 71 83 / 10 10 10 10 30 COTULLA 74 61 82 69 85 / 10 10 20 10 10 KINGSVILLE 77 65 84 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 74 69 81 73 84 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ GH/77...AVIATION