754 FXUS62 KMLB 080222 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 920 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS AND SHOWERS IN POLK COUNTY TRIGGERING STORMS AND SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS START TO DISSIPATE AS BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO TRIGGER STORMS AND SHOWERS. WILL AMEND WHEN RADAR TREND SHOWS DEFINITE DISSIPATING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. .AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TIL 08/06Z DUE TO VISIBILITY AND WEATHER AT INTERIOR TAF SITES. .MARINE...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE. PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 ...TODAY WAS THE LAST OF VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES FOR NOW... ...COOLER WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK... CURRENT-TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FAIRLY DEEP SO THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND WITH CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THE VEERING STORM MOTION WINDS WILL TAKE SOME ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TOWARD 1.70 INCHES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOES REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WEAK IMPULSES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. ESE/SE WINDS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND IN THE U60S/L70S. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL FL LATE. SUN...WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE NEAR THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS (MOISTURE) AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN RECENT FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. SHOULD STILL REALIZE NEAR 80 DEGREES NORTH AND L/M 80S SOUTHWARD. CELL MOVEMENT REMAINS OUT OF THE SSW AT 10 MPH OR LESS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME ENE/NE AREAWIDE. SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT INITIALLY STRETCHES FROM OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS ACROSS NORTH FL TO A SURFACE LOW IN THE NERN GOMEX. TO THE EAST...ANOTHER T-WAVE AND ASCD WEAK LOW WILL BE OVER THE SERN BAHAMAS AND MOVING NW TO NNW. THE GOMEX LOW WILL DAMPEN OUT MONDAY AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SERN COAST. THIS WAVE/LOW WILL DRAG THE FRONT SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES ON TAP THROUGH LATE MONDAY. FCST WENT WITH SIGNIFICANT N-S GRADIENT IN POPS (60-70 NORTH TO 20 SOUTH) FOR SUN NIGHT WITH MORE EVEN DISTRIBUTION (60/50) FOR MONDAY...DROPPING TO 30 AREAWIDE MON NIGHT. AS THE BAHAMAS SYSTEM PASSES NWD OFF TO OUR EAST...HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO FL BEHIND THESE TWO FEATURES...GRADUALLY DRYING THINGS OUT THROUGH MID WEEK. INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN COOLER HIGHS SUN-MON WITH NRLY FLOW DEVELOPING MON NGT AND BECOMING ONSHORE TUE...WEAKENING THROUGH WED. THIS WILL KEEP MAXES CLOSER TO CLIMO. THU-SAT...WEAKENING ATLC SFC HIGH SAGS SWD INTO FL WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NARROW POS TILT MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS FL AND INTO THE ATLC LOOKS POISED TO CAUSE THIS FRONT TO LAY OVER WSW-ENE AND SLOW DOWN AS IT SAGS INTO THE AREA ON FRI. COOL ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF FRONT LOOKS BRIEF AS MODERATE POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS FRI VEER ONSHORE BY SAT. && .AVIATION... WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS NORTH FL WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT. COOLER ALOFT WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING. SCHC SHRA ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT MAY INHIBIT PATCHY FOG FORMATION SO WILL LEAVE ABSENT FROM TAFS FOR NOW THOUGH WILL NOT DISMISS ENTIRELY AT LEAST SOME SHALLOW FOG...STRATUS POTENTIAL LATE. ESE/SE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR WILL BE LIKELY INVOF OF ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION. ENE/NE FLOW IN LIEU OF FRONT ON SUN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...ESP NORTH...WITH SCT/NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA AROUND. && .MARINE... CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FL WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ESE/SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS FORECAST MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT THE NNE/ENE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO VEER MORE SSW THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE COAST TO INCLUDE A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS. PROXIMITY OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3 FT VERY NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT GULF STREAM/ OFFSHORE IN A PERSISTENT ENE 8 SECOND PERIOD SWELL. SUN...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE NEAR THE AREA AS FLOW BECOMES E/NE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BY AFTERNOON OVER THE OPEN ATLC. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION INCLUDING ISOLD TSRA WITH CELL MOTION OUT OF THE SSW MEANING SOME ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT OFF OF THE COAST. SEAS CONTINUE MAINLY 3-4 FT WITH A MINOR SWELL COMPONENT. MON-THU...NE SURGE IS ADVERTISED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS FROM N-S ALONG WITH BUILDING A LOCAL NE SWELL. HIGHER SEAS START THE WEEK ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM AND OUTER WATERS BEFORE WINDS VEER ONSHORE TUE AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE MAOR. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE TUE ONWARD AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER FL. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. && .CLIMATE... MELBOURNE TIED AND VERO BEACH BROKE THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE BEFORE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVED THROUGH. DAYTONA BEACH FELL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT TODAY...WHILE ORLANDO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL COME UP SHORT AS WELL. HOWEVER...ORLANDO EXTENDED THEIR RECORD TO FIVE DAYS IN NOVEMBER WITH A HIGH OF AT LEAST 90 DEGREES. IN ONLY TWO OTHER YEARS...1919 AND 1934...HAS THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN ORLANDO REACHED 90 DEGREES MORE THAN ONCE IN NOVEMBER...AND IN BOTH OF THOSE YEARS IT OCCURRED TWICE. RECORD HIGHS FOR NOV 7TH.......HIGH SO FAR TODAY ------------------------------------------------ DAYTONA BEACH INT'L...87F (1943)......85F ORLANDO INT'L.........92F (1922)......90F (5TH DAY AOA 90F IN NOV) MELBOURNE INT'L.......87F (1972)......87F (TIED RECORD) VERO BEACH MUNI.......86F (1990)......88F (NEW RECORD) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 80 70 78 / 30 70 70 60 MCO 71 83 70 82 / 40 70 40 60 MLB 73 85 72 82 / 40 50 30 50 VRB 71 86 72 83 / 40 50 20 50 LEE 71 80 69 80 / 30 70 60 60 SFB 71 83 69 80 / 40 70 50 60 ORL 72 83 71 82 / 40 70 50 60 FPR 71 87 72 84 / 40 50 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK LONG TERM/RADAR/DSS....CRISTALDI $$ CRISTALDI/WIMMER