096 
FXUS62 KJAX 050225
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES FROM
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS TO EXTREME NE FL AND DECAYS WWD THROUGH THE
ERN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. NEARLY
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS IS NOTED N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE COOL HIGH PRES RIDGE IS NOTED. SOME OVERRUNNING CONDS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES OVER THE N HALF OF
THE ZONES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PROSPECTS FOR DENSE FOG. THE
SETUP WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST MORE STRATUS THAN DENSE FOG...AND THIS
IS HOW IT WILL BE PLAYED FOR NOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS CONFLICTING SIGNS
FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL INDICATE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG FOR SE GA ZONES...WITH AREAS OF FOG MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. THE 21Z SREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BEST REPRESENT THIS
SCENARIO. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A MARINE WX STATEMENT FOR THE
NEARSHORE GA WATERS WHERE VSBY MAY AT TIMES BE BELOW 1 NM. WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS AND THE MARINE ZONES GIVEN CONVERGENCE NEAR A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS
(PWAT WELL ABOVE CLIMATE).

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERNS AGAIN SURROUND LOW CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SSI CONTINUES TO BE LIFR WHICH IS FCST TO LOWER TO
VLIFR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT DISCOUNT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
DUE TO THE NELY FLOW STRENGTHENING A BIT. OCNL IFR FOR JAX...CRG
AND VQQ EXPECTED TONIGHT..WITH POSSIBILITY OF LIFR EARLY THU
MORNING. BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SGJ THOUGH LOWERING
TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. CONDS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...THOUGH AGAIN SSI MAY BE NOT
IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE DAY ABOVE IFR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
GUIDANCE TO EXTEND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NE TO E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT.
NEARSHORE WATERS EXPECTED TO HAVE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THU MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: SURF CONDS MAY INCREASE TO MODERATE RISK ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  83  68  87 /  20  20   0  10 
SSI  69  81  68  80 /  10  20   0  10 
JAX  69  84  69  83 /  20  20   0  10 
SGJ  72  83  69  82 /  20  20  10  10 
GNV  70  87  68  86 /  10  20   0  10 
OCF  71  87  68  86 /  10  20   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALSH