271 FXUS63 KIND 041849 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 148 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .UPDATE... THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 338 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST BUT KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT COOLER DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL THEN ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ISSUED AT 948 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 FOG IS BURNING OFF ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE OF AREAS OF CLOUDS /ONE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND A LARGER ONE ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY/ ARE MOVING NORTH. THESE WILL PROVIDE SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER EXPECT SOME MIXING OUT OF THE CLOUDS LATER SO MOST AREAS WILL AVERAGE OUT PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY. OTHERWISE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER ELEMENTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE AREA OF ZERO TO A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG BETWEEN NOW AND AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME MIXING GOING ON IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THIS WILL STOP ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THIS COULD ADVECT IN SOME STRATO CU FROM THE SOUTH. CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT WILL DO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY BUT STILL WIND UP WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S...BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY MAY STAY IN THE LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 338 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/THUNDER CHANCES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON ISENTROPIC LIFT. THURSDAY THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THEN. THURSDAY NIGHT A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE BUT A LITTLE DOES MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH. HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING THROUGH MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO DRAW DOWN SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS. THUS CONTINUING WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THINK MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE MAKES SENSE. DON/T EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK BUT THINK A FEW 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A GUST OF 60 MPH SOMEWHERE ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND IT. THINK THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES OUT RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOOKING AT THE UPPER FLOW AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 148 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN POPS NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOL WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPIN UP A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE 00Z WEDNESDAY ECMWF WAS MUCH STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE EURO. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN REGIONAL INITIALIZATION IS INCREASING AND WILL ACCEPT IT. THE INITIALIZATION BRINGS IN SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING TO GOOD CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE POTENTIAL. REGIONAL INITIALIZATION TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY AND WARMING TO THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY LOOK GOOD. ALTHOUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD END UP WARMING THINGS UP EVEN MORE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THETAF. THEN...MVFR OR WORSE FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED...BY LATE EVENING AND WORSENING OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SCT 4K FOOT DECK AT LAF WITH CEILINGS AT THE OTHER SITES. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP/50 SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK