294 
FXUS65 KFGZ 252225
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST SUN OCT 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS..ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
REGION AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SHOWERS WILL END BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT BRINGS FAIR WEATHER
TO THE AREA. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
WEEK...BRINGING FAIR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH THAT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH ARIZONA AND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO ARIZONA WITH FAIR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GROWN MORE CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS WITH A WETTER SOLUTION ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH SNOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND
8000 FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS. BY SATURDAY...EXPECT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS 
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 15-20 KFT MSL.
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A KIGM-KFLG-KRQE LINE.
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z MONDAY. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BOHLIN
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF