238 FXUS62 KFFC 221937 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 337 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... NO CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLOWLY UNDER THE EASTERLY FLOW...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. 01 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW POPS EXTREME NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STILL LOOK OKAY. CHANCES INCREASING AFTER THAT. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT OF WESTERN GULF LOW PULLING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEDNESDAY STILL OKAY FOR LIKELY POPS. HAVE MADE ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS AND HAVE HELD ON TO LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON CLEARING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW. 41 && PREVIOUS.../ISSUED 358 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015/... LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... OVERALL...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION VERSUS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH BACK THE ONSET TIME OF RETURNING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAINING DRY AND POP FREE. WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY WHERE TEMPERATURES OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE MID 80S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE ON SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND FAR NORTH GEORGIA. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME WEAK STRUNG OUT VORTICITY FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PROGRESSES EAST TO RESIDE OVER THE NE STATES. THIS POSITION WILL PROMOTE A WEDGE TYPE SETUP FOR THE LOCAL AREA. COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE WITH THIS SETUP BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES LOOKS MEAGER AT BEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGE AS WE GET INTO THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 PERIOD...MAINLY PERTAINING TO TIMING. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF HIGH POPS AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS TARGETING TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE WED NIGHT INTO THU. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS PICK UP GULF LOW IN THIS TROUGH WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DEESE AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH NO PRECIPITATION OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA BUT THEY ARE STAYING ABOVE MVFR LIMITS. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE E TO NE AT 10KT OR LESS. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 50 79 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 ATLANTA 56 80 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 45 77 49 72 / 0 0 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 50 80 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 58 82 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 53 78 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 MACON 53 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 49 80 54 78 / 0 0 0 5 PEACHTREE CITY 51 81 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 58 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...01