207 FXUS64 KFWD 091500 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE FOR LATEST TRENDS IN SKY COVER...HOURLY DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT HEATING. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TR.92 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ /12Z TAFS/ CHALLENGES INCLUDE COLD FRONTAL TIMING TODAY AND LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE TRUE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING. SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WERE NOTED FROM WICHITA FALLS INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE IN AN AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE DFW AREA AIRPORTS MID-LATE MORNING WITH LIGHT NW WINDS SHIFTING NORTH 9-12 KTS. WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LACKING AND BEST UPPER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDER ARE EXPECTED. COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE DFW AREA TAFS THIS MORNING...BUT VCSH/VCTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR LATER TAF SETS. BASICALLY A SIMILAR SCENARIO AT WACO...JUST DELAYED 3-4 HRS WITH FROPA IN THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AGAIN WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK AND A SOMEWHAT STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WINDS SHOULD VEER NE AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT...AS DECOUPLING OCCURS AND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE TRUE COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH COLORADO AS DISPLAYED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE FEATURES WILL WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD TODAY...BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO CONVECTION IN WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS CAUSED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER FOR AREAS FROM PALESTINE TO CAMERON TO HAMILTON DUE TO INHIBITED RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING AS SURFACE T/TD SPREADS SHOULD REMAIN TOO LARGE TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR CAUSING WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL UPPER- LEVEL FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MIDDAY. WITH WEAK FORCING AND MEAGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE...EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER DESPITE THE COOLER/DRIER AIR LAGGING FAR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL CAUSE SATURDAY TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RETURN FLOW WILL RESUME FAIRLY QUICKLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. INCREASED RIDGING ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. WE MAY BE FLIRTING WITH THE RECORD HIGH AT WACO WHICH IS 97F. DFW/S RECORD OF 99 SHOULD BE SAFE...BUT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROMPTS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT INCREASED MOISTURE IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 COULD SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF AN ATHENS TO GATESVILLE LINE. THE AIR BEHIND MONDAY/S FRONT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER EITHER...BUT IT WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR TO NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 80S BUT DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE RIGHT BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES IN SIGHT. STALLEY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 89 64 84 67 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 90 65 87 64 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 85 56 81 57 90 / 20 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 86 57 83 62 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 87 58 83 61 92 / 20 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 88 64 84 66 93 / 20 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 89 61 85 61 92 / 20 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 91 65 86 64 94 / 20 10 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 87 65 87 64 94 / 20 10 0 0 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 86 60 85 64 95 / 20 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$