055 FXUS64 KHGX 081415 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 915 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015 .UPDATE... EARLY MORNING PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE THICKER SWATH OF CIRRUS STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH...PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE FIELDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA/MATAGORDA BAY REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK PVA MOVING UP AROUND THE BROAD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LOW...WILL WARRANT WESTERN FORECAST AREA SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM. A PARTIALLY CLOUDY DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACHIEVING THE AVERAGE UPPER 80S UNDER A VEERING BREEZE TO THE SOUTHEAST. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / DISCUSSION... SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION... CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER SE TX TODAY. EXPECTING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TODAY BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY FOR PRECIP. LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. 43 && DISCUSSION... NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING BUT WE MAY BEGIN SEEING SOME CHANGES LATER TODAY. A STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE DRAWING WEAK DISTURBANCES IN FROM FAR SOUTH TX (AS PER WV LOOPS FROM AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AROUND FAR WEST TX)...AND AS THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX SLOWLY MOISTENS TODAY WE COULD BEGIN SEEING ISO -SHRA OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEFORE SPREADING EAST TONIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE/LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA UNTIL FRI...WITH THE APPROACH /PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. FROPA WILL BE AIDED BY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE (INCREASINGLY NWLY FLOW ALOFT) AS THE MAIN CLOSED LOW SLIDES BACK TO THE WEST. BUT CONCERNS REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH FROPA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A COOL START FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WEAK CAA PROGGED TO BE BRIEF AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN SUN AFTN. MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT) AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FCST SET TO MOVE IN TO SE TX AROUND NEXT TUES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE HINTING THAT WE MAY GET SOME PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THERE ARE SOME (NOT UNEXPECTED) DISCREPANCIES REGARDING TIMING/AMOUNT OF CAA WITH THIS FRONT ATTM. 41 && MARINE... A LIGHT WIND REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN...SEAS COULD BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET WITH THE BRIEF INCREASE THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT SEABREEZE/LANDBREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 69 91 67 89 / 20 20 20 20 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 90 70 90 67 89 / 10 20 20 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 87 75 87 73 83 / 10 20 20 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...31