211 
FXUS64 KCRP 020840
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO MEXICO WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA DRIFTS 
SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE COASTAL BEND WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH DOWN INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
0.75 INCHES SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 50S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY AND SATURDAY ALSO.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT SCEC LEVELS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...DRY AND BENIGN 
WEATHER BEGINS THE PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER CENTRAL 
CONUS AND ONE UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO SOCAL/DESERT SOUTHWEST AND 
ANOTHER LOW SWEEPING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. RIDGE OVER THE REGION 
BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST CONUS PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  STILL SEEING BIG DIFFERENCES 
IN HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS NEXT SYSTEM (GFS WETTER AND MORE 
PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THIS LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE STATES WHILE 
THE ECMWF DIGS LOW FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND HOLDS IT THERE).  
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL STAY DRY OVER THE REGION. HELD OFF 
ON MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION(JUST 20S) NOW 
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AND INTO 
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN PAST THE 
END OF THE PERIOD.  WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN MODELS 
BEFORE GOING ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF THE WORK 
WEEK. WRT TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH AT 
LEAST THE MID WEEK. HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS 
RETURN WITH A BETTER ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE MID WEEK AS WELL.  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER 
THOUGH WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    92  63  88  67  88  /   0   0   0   0   0 
VICTORIA          89  55  86  61  87  /   0   0   0   0   0 
LAREDO            98  70  93  68  92  /   0   0   0   0   0 
ALICE             94  62  91  64  91  /   0   0   0   0   0 
ROCKPORT          90  64  87  68  84  /   0   0   0   0   0 
COTULLA           94  64  91  65  91  /   0   0   0   0   0 
KINGSVILLE        93  62  90  65  90  /   0   0   0   0   0 
NAVY CORPUS       89  68  86  72  85  /   0   0   0   0   0 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
LK/84...LONG TERM