777 FXUS62 KJAX 281925 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 325 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .NEAR TERM... SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A COUPLE EMBEDDED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3-2.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINFALL STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11 WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON THE WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME. COASTAL FLOODING WAS REPORTED THIS MORNING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE FULL MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH HIGH TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LIFTING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO OUR EAST NORTHWARD AND DRIVING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE DEPRESSION WILL WORK NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER OF A SERIES OF NORTHEASTERS TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY CUTTING OFF THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...SO KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW CIGS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL VEER NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WEDGE SHIFTS EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST FL PANHANDLE TUE AND INTO SOUTH GA TUE NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER NE AND MERGES WITH ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN BECOME NNE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG STRONG HIGH BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 83 72 85 / 50 60 40 50 SSI 74 80 75 83 / 40 70 40 40 JAX 73 82 73 86 / 50 70 30 40 SGJ 74 82 75 86 / 50 60 30 40 GNV 72 85 73 87 / 60 70 30 40 OCF 73 85 73 87 / 70 60 30 40 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU- PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS. GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN. AM...NONE. && $$ SANDRIK/KENNEDY/SHASHY