996 FXUS63 KFSD 280850 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 350 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AS OF 08Z ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS ON COVERAGE/AMOUNTS BASED ON THE CURRENT REALITY...SO OPTED TO CAP POPS IN THE MID-HIGH SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW...AND AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS 0.05-0.10 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST LOCATIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MOST PROLONGED. READINGS FOR THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT READINGS IN SOME LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE EXPECT MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO WARM INTO THE MID TO MAYBE UPPER 70S AS SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL THERE FOR AT LEAST MUCH OF THE MORNING...IF NOT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE SLIDES ALONG THE SLOWING ELEVATED BOUNDARY. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER BUMPING THE EVENING-EARLY OVERNIGHT POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MORE PROLONGED LIFT. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL SURFACE FLOW KEEPING MOISTURE LIMITED BELOW 4-5KFT...WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS IN SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS...WITH READINGS HOLDING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 ON TUESDAY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LEADING TO A DRY AND COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MIDLEVEL CLOUDS MOST ABUNDANT THROUGH OUR WESTERN CWA...TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA WIDE. ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE ALLOWING FOR AN ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWER OVER THE WESTERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 50 OVER THIS AREA WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL EXIST...TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE EAST WITH LOWER 40S THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA. WEDNESDAY REMAINS COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH WEAK...BETTER FORCING REMAINS THROUGH THE MO RIVER VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY SO COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THAT AREA. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AGAIN LOOK TO BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...IS CHARACTERIZED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING PARKED OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE ENHANCED CHANCES BEING SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THE FORTHCOMING 06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT SO FAR THE LATEST 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUGGESTING MVFR CEILINGS. IF MVFR CEILINGS DO OCCUR AT KHON...KFSD OR KSUX ON MONDAY...THEY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER END MVFR JUST BELOW VFR. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MJ