652 
FXUS63 KEAX 092124
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
424 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

Forecast concerns begin with possible dense fog tonight and then
heavy rain tomorrow evening...

Light winds overnight with cooler surface conditions and moisture
trapped near the surface could mean some areas of fog. However...the
next system moving into the region may bring clouds early enough to
keep fog from being widespread enough for an advisory. Will let the
evening and overnight shifts re-evaluate.

Surface high pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will continue
slowly drifting east southeast this evening. An upper level trough in
the northwest flow will move down into the central plains
tomorrow...ushering in a surface cold front and providing good
isentropic lift to set the stage for some heavy rain in the CWA. 

The shear looks fairly weak...around 15kts at 00Z...and the
instability is expected to be elongated with total MUCAPE around 1500
J/Kg. 

As the front sags south from the northwest Missouri through central
Kansas...there will be some training possible as the front becomes
oriented more E-W. In addition...Low Level Jet should help feed
additional moisture into the growing complex...QPF will be upwards of
an inch or two in the CWA mostly south of 36 Highway.

The front and rain move south of the CWA rather quickly by Friday
morning and cooler air will advect into the area. High temperatures
will be in the lower 70s with gusty northly winds on Friday but we
will have dry conditions for Friday evening. Saturday will be very
cool with highs only in the 60s and still dry. Sunday into early next
week we will warm up a little as the surface high shifts east and we
get return flow.

The upper flow becomes cyclonic once again on Tuesday...so that as we
approach middle next week we will have the next chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2015

MVFR Cigs will temporarily affect the terminals this afternoon until
around 21Z or so. Current satellite and models show continued trend
toward drying out low levels and mixing to around 5K feet so the
clouds will be decreasing. Winds will remain light. Expecting a mid
level deck to move over the area later which should prevent formation
of fog...but if the deck is thin or does not materialize...will have
to monitor terminals for fog developing towards sunrise...since we
will have cooler air mass in place and light winds.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Adolphson
AVIATION...Adolphson