812 FXUS62 KTAE 272010 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 410 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... The 1 pm regional surface analysis showed the front which brought us some slight relief from the late summer heat and humidity was beginning to slowly translate westward as a weak warm front. It extended southward from Savannah, GA, through Steinhatchee, FL, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Much of our forecast area was still in the abnormally dry air west of the front, with Precip Water values 40-60% below climo. As this front translates slowly westward and interacts with the various sea breeze fronts, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and affect areas around Cross City, Valdosta, and Madison this afternoon and evening. Otherwise the weather will be fair, though not as cool as the past two nights, with lows in the upper 60s (west) to lower 70s elsewhere. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... In the upper levels, there will be weak troughing to the west and weak ridging to the east. At the sfc, a stationary boundary will divide the region with the western portion in the dry sector and the eastern portion in the moist sector. As low level moisture begins to creep back into the region, rain chances will increase. POPs around 40 to 50 percent are expected for the eastern Big Bend and easternmost Georgia counties. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will be more isolated. Highs on Friday will be in the low 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. On Saturday, low level moisture will continue to increase, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the region in the afternoon hours. POPs will be around 50 to 60 percent for all locations. Highs on Saturday will be around 90 with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Upper level features are forecast to be weak in the extended period. At the sfc, features will be weak until late Monday when Erika may be affecting central Florida. Therefore, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Monday. Sunday and Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon/evening hours as low level moisture increases. The official NHC forecast for Erika has the entire Florida peninsula, the extreme eastern Gulf and the open waters of the Atlantic east of Florida in the error cone. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with Erika's track. If Erika tracks farther east and remains over open Atlantic waters, it will not impact the region. If Erika tracks farther west into the Gulf it could become more of a threat to the Florida Panhandle. If Erika tracks through the center of the cone, it may become a weak hurricane moving along the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Expect highs in the low 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees at times. && .Aviation... [Through 18Z Friday] Isolated SHRA/TSRA will develop across south central GA and north FL. However, the probability of a storm affecting the terminals is too low to mention in this TAF package. Generally VFR conditions are expected through tonight, but some of the numerical guidance indicates the potential for some low cigs around KVLD and KABY. We are forecasting low-end MVFR cigs around dawn, but cigs could be IFR if the GFS verifies and there is some decent isentropic lift along the 305K surface. Scattered TSRA will develop Friday afternoon, but mainly after 18z. && .Marine... Light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend. && .Fire Weather... Aside from possible high dispersion Friday afternoon, there are no fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend. && .Hydrology... Starting tomorrow we'll be transitioning to a wetter pattern, with rain expected through at least the weekend. On average, rainfall amounts through the weekend will have little to no impacts on area rivers. Depending on the eventual track of Erika, rainfall amounts could drastically increase into next week. However, Erika's current track will have only a minimal impact w.r.t. to rainfall locally. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 72 91 74 89 74 / 10 30 20 60 30 Panama City 73 88 76 86 75 / 0 30 30 60 20 Dothan 69 90 72 87 71 / 10 20 20 50 30 Albany 71 90 73 89 73 / 10 30 20 60 30 Valdosta 72 91 73 90 73 / 20 50 20 60 30 Cross City 73 90 74 89 74 / 20 50 20 50 30 Apalachicola 73 88 76 86 75 / 10 30 30 60 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...MCDERMOTT FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN