338 FXUS62 KFFC 170521 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 121 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ UPDATE... MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY TO POPS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE HRRR DOES DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENTLY...THE BEST TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE RIGHT BEFORE DAWN. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON THE COVERAGE...SO KEPT POPS CAPPED AROUND 30-40 PERCENT. ALSO TWEAKED THE TIMING FOR THE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AIRMASS IS MODIFYING WITH A MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING 1.5 PWS AND OVER 3500 MUCAPE... ALL WITH NO CAP. THE GREATER AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTH GA WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH IS NEARER TO NW GA AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS... AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA WHERE DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GA... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRANKLIN TO LOUISVILLE LINE AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD. AIRMASS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE... SO HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MOST AREAS... WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH LITTLE SHEAR OR FORCING NOTED... CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BETWEEN 4-9 PM TODAY. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD END BY 9 PM THIS EVENING... BUT ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE MS VALLEY REGION THAT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... AND PROVIDE AN SUPPORT FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM THE WEST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING... THEN BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS BY MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY... BUT A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. HIGH PWS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT... BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLY TONIGHT... EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS AND INSTABILITIES DOWN ON MONDAY... ALL SUPPORTING A LESSOR CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. OTHERWISE... A MAV AND MET BLEND GAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE... SO DID NOT STRAY. 39 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM WITH RATHER HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER S GA ON WEDNESDAY...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FROM SW FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ON THURSDAY WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT BECOMING WEAKER BUT A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...MOST SO ON THE GFS AND LESS SO ON THE EUROPEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUING ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES START OUT BELOW NORMAL BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AROUND NORMAL TOWARD WEEKS END. BDL/01 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MOSTLY VFR CIGS AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...RISING TO VFR BY NOON. SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING AND BECOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY IN ATL. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON CIGS AND TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 87 71 86 71 / 70 70 70 70 ATLANTA 85 73 85 72 / 70 70 70 70 BLAIRSVILLE 80 66 79 65 / 80 80 70 60 CARTERSVILLE 85 70 85 70 / 80 80 70 60 COLUMBUS 88 74 89 73 / 60 60 60 50 GAINESVILLE 83 71 82 71 / 70 70 70 70 MACON 88 73 89 72 / 60 60 60 70 ROME 84 71 85 70 / 80 80 70 60 PEACHTREE CITY 85 71 86 70 / 70 70 60 60 VIDALIA 89 73 89 72 / 60 60 70 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...17